A Brief Thought About the Fermi Paradox

When I looked into some of the ancient astronauts stuff a few weeks ago, I came across a lot of discussions of the Fermi paradox. I think I've come up with a possible explanation that I haven't seen before.

The argument made by Enrico Fermi was that while it would take millions of years for a technologically advanced civilization to explore the entire Milky Way galaxy, this is not very long compared to the billions of years that the galaxy has existed. Therefore, if a technologically advanced civilization existed in the Milky Way galaxy, then they should be here by now.

A number of suggestions have been put forward to explain why we see no evidence of extraterrestrial civilizations. This range from, we are the first and only civilization to they are hiding from us. You can read about some more proposals on the Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

A few days ago I came up with another explanation. Some time ago I came across an article that suggested that there could well be planets that are more suited to life than Earth (see: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/01/140117-exoplanets-superhabitable-planets-space-astronomy-science/). I thought, if extraterrestrial civilizations arose on a planet more suited to life than Earth, they might very well look at Earth as uninhabitable and pass it by.

Our space programs have sent probes to planets that we don't think are inhabitable. But, would a civilization that had visited many solar systems still want to explore uninhabited planets? I suspect that if we explored other solar systems, that after a period where we did explore uninhabitable planets, we would come to see that as a waste of time. I've made the assumption that life on an Earth-like planet is sufficiently rare that an extraterrestrial civilization is unlikely to find a case before they give up on Earth-like planets.

An extraterrestrial civilization could have explored many Earth-like planets and never found one that was inhabited. If they saw Earth from a nearby solar system, they might well conclude that there wasn't any point to actually visit. They might think: if you've seen one Earth, you've seen them all.

The main objection I see to this idea is that it assumes that the civilization had a low level of curiosity. For a civilization that had decided to undertake interstellar travel, this seems unlikely. I'm not sure we can discard the idea based on this objection, especially since, as of now, we can't prove it one way or another.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

My Own Conflicts

My wife's health has taken a turn for the worse and making her life the best it can be is my primary goal. I still want to work on my films and stories.

My feelings about my work are conflicted. On one hand, I feel like any work I do takes time and effort away from my wife. On the other hand, I feel it is important to have a focus on positive things. I do gain satisfaction from my work that I believe will give me more strength when my wife needs it. Nevertheless, I still feel guilty when I work on my projects.

I have decided that I will try to do some work on my projects. Naturally, with my main focus on my wife, I will need to interrupt my projects frequently. I will have to choose my projects carefully, so that they are projects I can drop and pick up again. I already have many unfinished projects.

Many artists use the trials in their lives as fodder for their work. I can't do that now; maybe I never will. My post last week generated a higher than normal level of interest, so maybe I can take direction from that.

The important thing is to seek happiness and contentment as much as we can. In the past when I had troubled times I used to say to myself, "Find an excuse to be happy everyday, even if it was only for a minute."

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New Ideas for Transportation Planning Stories

Although "The Barrier" is still a work in progress, I have started to think about other transportation planning stories. I have two ideas that I want to consider. Do either of them appeal to you?

Defending What You Don't Agree With

The first is about a transportation planner who is assigned to develop a project he sees as unnecessary. At first he tries to convince people it is the wrong idea, but he is forced to continue. Because he isn't sold on the project himself, he doesn't try hard to make it work. This gets him in trouble with his bosses.

Threatened with dismissal, he makes a more concerted effort. His new approach is more effective at selling the idea. Unfortunately, others start to see the proposal as his pet project. This leads to personal attacks on his character. Ultimately the politicians reject the project. He sees this as a personal failure. Perversely, he also sees it as a personal success, since he was opposed to the project.

The essence of story is conflict and I think this idea does provide several levels of conflict. The protagonist has internal conflicts with conflicting goals. The protagonist faces a conflict between self preservation and professionalism. The protagonist faces interpersonal conflicts on two side; proponents of the projects and critics of the project. The situation would force the protagonist into some personal growth to deal with the conflicts.

Monitoring Program

This idea isn't as well developed as the previous one. It comes from my personal experiences. The last major project I worked before I left the field was to develop a program to monitor the implementation of the transportation plan. This generated a lot of conflict.

While I was only assigned to the project in the last few years of my transportation planning career, I had advocated for the idea from very early in my career. My earlier efforts were not very effective.

I wanted to put this all behind me, but I recently saw an article by Bent Flyvbjerg ( see: http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/community/people/bent-flyvbjerg and http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk/ ). While I was still at work, I read some of his work that criticised transportation planning and forecasting.  The article, "How Planners Deal With Uncomfortable Knowledge" (see http://eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk/4662/ ), touches on some of the conflicts that I ran into.

The problem with this idea is that I find it "too close for comfort." Many people would see this as a good reason to pursue it. I feel it would be dangerous because I would lose sight of my goal to tell an entertaining story.

When I made "Line of Taxis" (see  http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/filmlist/line-of-taxis ), I drew from personal experience as well. In that case I chose to focus on the emotions that I felt and place them in a different context. I think this made it a much better project. It forced me to focus on the emotions of the characters and not just on the plot.

The essential conflict of the story is that some people don't want to have their work monitored. They see that as a personal attack. I never saw it that way and didn't really appreciate why they were so resistant. The sad fact is that all too often attempts to monitor people's work are a thinly veiled attempt to blame them for the failures of the system.

This has been a big issue in the education field, where standardized tests are often used to blame teachers. This only diverts attention from other problems where the effort would be much more effective. I think the effect of this approach has been to punish honesty and reward dishonesty.

W. Edwards Deming (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Edwards_Deming ) is often cited as the source for this approach. This is a misunderstanding of what he said. In his books he says that it is the system that is the cause of most problems. It is rarely the individual that is the problem.

The challenge for the protagonist of the story is to overcome the fear people have. Internally the protagonist would need to resist the idea that the resistance he faces is grounded in evil intent. Of course, in the real world I wasn't able to accomplish this, so it is hard for me to see how to do it in a realistic way in fiction.

Now, how I would create a situation in a transportation planning context that addressed these issues, but not deal with a monitoring program, is a challenge in itself. The only thing I can think of is to have the protagonist be assigned to review another person's work. The emotional interaction and attitudes would be similar.

This requires further thought.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

Do Ancient Alien Probes Watch Earth?

In the last couple of posts I talked about the possibility of aliens visiting Earth in the past. One of the reasons is that I had not found any serious discussion of the possibility. I found some this week.

I came across Robert A. Freitas Jr. (www.rfreitas.com), who in the late 1970s and early 1980s produced a number of studies on the Search For Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). One line of inquiry was the possibility of alien probes within the Solar System. Although he did not, strictly speaking, focus on ancient alien visits, the discovery of alien probes would be proof of visitation.

The list of articles he wrote can be found at http://www.rfreitas.com/AstroPubls.htm. In addition he produced a book on the subject "Xenology" more information and a link to portions of this book can be found at http://www.xenology.info/.

The article "The Search for Extraterrestrial Artifacts (SETA)", (which can be found here: http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/SETAJBISNov1983.htm), gives an introduction to Freitas' ideas.

I haven't read all of the material he wrote, but I have found some ideas that are relevant to the question I started with: If There Really Were Ancient Astronauts, What Kind of Evidence Would We Find?

• In his articles Freitas focuses on observational probes. He concludes that these would be small, in the 1 meter to 10 meter range.

• He identified three broad categories of probes: probes that didn't want to be found, probes that wanted to be found, and probes that didn't care if they were found.  He suggests that a any technology capable of sending an interstellar probe would be able to successfully hide from us.

• He concluded that any probes would be located in stable orbits close to Earth. He identified five such orbits.

• He conducted a preliminary search for alien probes. This did not identify any potential probe, but was not of sufficient detail to eliminate the possibility that alien probes existed close to Earth.

Freitas has restricted himself to a more limited range that I have so far. I do think that any definitive proof of alien visitations will be found in space.

I would think there would have been some follow up work along these lines more recently, but other than doubtful claims of cities, space ships and monuments found on the Moon or mars, I haven't found anything more recent that the early 1990s yet. It appears that since about 1985 Freitas has moved onto other research projects, specifically nanotechnology.

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Why Would Ancient Astronauts Visit Earth?

I continue my contemplation of the kind of evidence that would convince me of the truth of the ancient astronaut hypothesis. This week I consider the question: why did the come?

Last week I began to explore the question: If there really were ancient astronauts, what kind of evidence would we find? (see http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/if-there-really-were-ancient-astronauts-what-kind-of-evidence-would-we-find/). I started on a new project this week; it is more of a writing exercise than something plan to share, but that depends on how it turns out. I did some more thinking about the ancient astronaut hypothesis and pushed a little further ahead with my exploration.

Why did they come?

I think that the  reason ancient astronauts would visit Earth would have an effect on the kind of evidence that we would find. I came up with four possible explanations. There could be others that I didn't think of, so I am open to suggestions.

Resource extraction

Could they have come to obtain resources? This idea was explored in the movie Avatar http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avatar_(2009_film) from the perspective of the alien visitors. Of course it does place us humans in the role of the aliens.

I think that this is unlikely. Materials of all kinds are spread throughout the Universe. With the vast distances and resulting cost of transportation, it is hard to imagine anything that would be valuable enough to extract and ship to other solar systems.

For example, it appears that vast quantities of hydrocarbons exist on other bodies in our own solar system. It is believed that the volume of hydrocarbons on Saturn's moon Titan far exceed what exists on Earth. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lakes_of_Titan. It is far beyond our ability to extract this resource and bring it back to Earth now. By the time we develop the kind of technology that might make it worth while, it is likely that the technology would make hydrocarbon unnecessary.

Nevertheless, let us assume that this was the reason for the aliens to visit. What kind of evidence would we find?

One type of evidence would be the remains of resource extraction, such as abandoned mines and waste heaps. The extraction would need to be on a very large scale, and so should be very obvious.

Another type of evidence would be the rarity of resources that should be abundant. If significant resource extraction had occurred, then those resources would be dramatically depleted. This might not be immediately obvious. We usually assume that the way things are when we find them is the norm. Only later research would unveil unexpected rarity.

I am not aware of any evidence along these lines.

Colonization

Could they have come to colonize? Many of our own science fiction stories postulate humans setting up colonies on other planets. Ray Bradbury's The Martian Chronicles

is an example of this. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Martian_Chronicles

The experiences of the natives of the Americas and Australia under European colonization does not paint an optimistic picture of what humans could expect from alien colonizers. The best evidence for alien colonization is that humans would at best be a marginalized minority and at worst we would be extinct. Neither of these seem to be the case.

It is, of course, possible that an alien attempt at colonization failed, which would let humans survive. If that were the case, then the evidence that we might find would be the remnants of  alien technology.

Since the aliens would need a technology far beyond what we have now, any remnants could well be beyond our ability to recognize. In any event it would be beyond our current abilities to create.

Although there have been claims of advanced technologies found in ancient cultures, I have not heard of claims of technology that is beyond our current capabilities. The evidence would probably not be some isolated technology, but would involve a wide range of technologies. The evidence would not be ambiguous.

Scientific research

An example of how scientific study by aliens might go can be seen in the television docufiction program Alien Planet. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alien_Planet

In this scenario, the aliens would only be interested in the study of Earth, and would likely limit contact. This would mean there would be limited evidence of visitation. The primary evidence would be alien probes or their remains. While probes do land on Darwin IV in Alien Planet, and come to tragic ends, I think a scenario like that of 2001: A Space Odyssey is more probable. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001:_A_Space_Odyssey

There has been some serious interest in the search for alien artefacts on Earth,  and other planets and objects in the Solar System. So far as I am aware, there has been no credible claims of discoveries.

I found one scientific paper on-line that discussed the issue, but can't find it now. The paper concluded that the solar system had not been imaged in sufficient  detail yet to preclude the existence of alien probes.

Crash landing/ cast-a-ways

Could have the alien visit to Earth be unintentional? In this scenario, the alien visitors would have been forced to land on Earth and be unable to leave. The closest example in science fiction I could think of was the original Planet of the Apes movie. See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_of_the_Apes_(1968_film)

It is in this case that some of the claims of ancient astronaut believers might be true. Trapped on our planet, and bereft of their advanced technology, ancient astronauts may very well have resorted to helping the native human population to develop more advanced technology.

The plot of Planet of the Apes does not follow this direction though. The astronauts are barely able to survive, much less become like gods to the indigenous beings. Edgar Rice Burroughs' John Carter stories have a more optimistic, albeit unrealistic, outcome. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Carter_of_Mars

Unambiguous evidence of this scenario would be difficult to find. If there was a crash, there would be no direct evidence beyond the immediate site of the crash, which could be quite small in extent. Any other evidence would be more easily attributed to more prosaic explanations.

So where do we stand now?

I have identified some lines of evidence that might provide proof of alien visitation. By no means do I feel that I have covered the whole range of possibilities. There are still questions I raised in my previous blog post that I would like to address.

I haven't actively looked for any of the evidence that could provide proof of alien visitation. Indeed, much of the search is beyond my ability and resources. For now I will limit myself to consideration of the possibilities.

Some of this speculation could be the basis for some interesting science fiction tales.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

If There Really Were Ancient Astronauts, What Kind of Evidence Would We Find?

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Now that I have finished my movie "Summer's Too Short" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mk4tVFfgSP4, it is time to embark on a new project.

For many years I had an interest in the ancient astronaut hypothesis. Unfortunately, I have not found the kind of credible discussion that I want to see. I will try to start on that path myself and see where it takes me.

When I first heard of the ancient astronaut hypothesis, over 40 years ago, I was immediately fascinated. At first I was firmly convinced. But as I dug into the "evidence", it just dissipated in a puff a smoke. Nevertheless, I was still fascinated with the idea, albeit, disappointed there didn't appear to be any real evidence.

I think it is plausible that aliens visited Earth in the past. I  looked for people who have done a serious investigation, but only found vague comments about some speculation by Carl Sagan. That left me unsatisfied.

If there really were ancient astronauts, what kind of evidence would we find?

I have not seen any evidence that would convince me that the ancient astronaut hypothesis is valid. Old stone monuments can be easily explained by the skills people in the past could draw on. I am also uncomfortable with the implied racism inherent in some of the evidence.

I need to decide what kind of evidence would convince me. This is not a simple question.

Before we can speculate, we need to explore some other questions.

Where are they from and what is the level of their technology?

This could be two questions, but I think they need to be linked. The further away they come from, the higher their level of technology would be need to be. The more advanced their technology is, the harder it would be for us to recognize it. Their level of technology would affect how many of them there were and if they sent robot probes instead of living beings.

Why did they come here?

If they came here for scientific study, the evidence would be much different than if they came for colonization. Would Earth have been their primary goal, or might it be a way point on their route to their final goal.

Were they successful?

This is related to why they came. If they accomplished what they came here for, the evidence would be different than if they had failed. Between full success and abject failure there is a wide range of out comes.

When did they come?

Aliens who visited Earth billions of years ago would be much harder to detect than aliens who visited after human civilization arose. A closely related question would be how long did they stay. Did they ever leave?

How did they interact with humans?

If aliens visited openly, then evidence could be found in the cultural materials of ancient societies. If they visited clandestinely, we would need to look elsewhere. They might have engaged directly with humans or may have simply ignored them.

I suspect that there are many more questions that could be asked. For now though, I will cogitate on these as fodder for future blog posts.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

"Summer's Too Short" Now On-line

After more than a year in the making, my new short movie, "Summer's Too Short" is now on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mk4tVFfgSP4

I began work on "Summer's Too Short" on March 12, 2014. I took a single photo of my garden every day until December 9, 2014. Over the last month I have compiled these photos into a short movie.

I did a couple of posts on my blog about the movie:

<i>“Summer’s Too Short”</i> Should be Done Shortly http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/summers-too-short-should-be-done-shortly/

and

A Little Work on a “Short” Project http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/a-little-work-on-a-short-project/

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