"The Barrier": How Specific Do I Need to be About the Transportation Model?

In my initial version of "The Barrier" I was kind of skimpy on the details of the issues with the transportation model. With the rewrite, I felt I needed to make that more detailed.

I revised 4 more scenes this week. I've done 14 of the 39 scenes I plan to rewrite. Most of the remaining scenes have only minor changes, but there are four scenes that need major rewrites. In those scenes I had the characters talk in vague generalities about the issues that come up about the transportation model. I started to work on those specifics this week.

I've run into some barriers of my own.

Hazy Memory

It's been 13 years since I last worked in transportation forecasting, and 7 years since I actively kept up with developments in the field. My memory has faded somewhat over those years. Transportation models have thousands of details that can become controversial. I struggled to remember a handful of major issues. I'm sure that as I think about it more, some more will come to mind.

Dated Knowledge

Since I haven't kept up on new developments, the criticisms of transportation models may well have changed. Around the time I left the field, new types of models were being introduced that were supposed to address some of the major criticisms of existing transportation models.

It may well be that some of the issues I want to use in the movie are no longer relevant. No doubt there would be some criticism of  the newer models, but I wouldn't know what they would be. I'm not keen to do a lot of research to update my self. Maybe someone can give me some suggestions I can use.

I do remember one criticism of the newer models was how much more time and effort they took to run. That isn't an issue I can use in my movie. Another was the perennial complaint about models that they were black boxes that nobody understood. I already use this in the movie. I even call the model software "BlackBox by VooDoo".

What I don't believe has changed is that forecasting models are still the weak link in the planning process. Knowledgeable people who want to question transportation plans will go after the forecasts. You can see the same pattern in the climate change debate.

Avoid Confusion

I worry that if I get too specific about the transportation model, people without some background in the field will get confused. On the other hand, the vague descriptions I used in the last version of "The Barrier" confused people anyway. I need to strike a balance where most viewers can follow what is happening.

The issues with the model are what Alfred Hitchcock used to call a McGuffin. It's what the characters in the movie think is important, but it isn't important to the story or the audience.

Options

My first inclination is to use the jargon that transportation planners would use. The problem with that approach is that then I would have to explain what the term means. I've done that in a few places already. I had the developer play dumb to force the engineers to explain what they meant.

In the scenes I need to revise, the characters should know what they talking about, which eliminates any excuse for characters to explain. The approach I have in mind is to have the characters describe the real world implication of the issue, rather than use the jargon. That might grate on people who do know the jargon.

For example, I want the consultant to criticise the volume delay curve equation. When I have Dennis talk about the note the consultant sent, he could say something like, "Here he questions how we calculate the delays from traffic congestion." Most people know what delay and traffic congestion mean. They don't need to know how the model estimates the delay.

Issues To Use

I've come up with a few more issues I think I can use.

·         Parking cost - this would affect whether people drive or take the bus.

·         Pedestrians mode constant in the modal choice model - this would affect how many people walk instead for drive.

·         Ride sharing - this would affect car pooling. This might include newer services like Uber or Lyft.

·         Trip distribution exponent - this would affect where people would go to work or shop.

·         Cycling - I plan to use a reference to cycling elsewhere in the revised script, so I wouldn't want to use it here.

I'll need to work on these issues some more before I go ahead with my rewrite. I still might decide to do some more research.

You can watch the previous version of "The Barrier" here: http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/the-barrier/

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

Ancient Alien Visitations: Show Me the Garbage

In an earlier post I asked myself what might convince me that aliens had visited Earth in ancient times. I think I have an answer to that now.

Back in May 2015, I wrote a post about what evidence we'd find if aliens had visited Earth in ancient times.

http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/if-there-really-were-ancient-astronauts-what-kind-of-evidence-would-we-find/ In that post I asked what kind of evidence would convince me that aliens had visited Earth.

Much of the evidence presented to support the ancient alien visitation hypothesis, is also used to support the advanced prehistoric civilization hypothesis. My discussion below would therefore also apply to that hypothesis.

Am I a Denier or a Sceptic?

So far, none of the evidence presented by advocates of the ancient alien visitation hypothesis has convinced me that there was any truth to the hypothesis.  The difference between a denier and a sceptic is that a sceptic can say what kind of evidence would cause them to change their mind. When I wrote the last post, I couldn't think of what might convince me, but I have thought about it several times since then.

Evidence: Show Me the Garbage

Recently I read an article on the Internet that reminded me that archaeologists find the study of  people's garbage dumps very useful in their research. What struck me was that the evidence proposed to support the ancient alien visitation hypotheses is by and large stone constructions. These can be explained in other ways.

If aliens had visited Earth and spent some considerable time here, surely they would have left some kind of garbage. If there had been a large scale presence of aliens in ancient times, we would find garbage that reflected a more advanced level of technology almost everywhere. These large accumulations of garbage would leave little doubt that aliens had visited. This kind of discovery of garbage would convince me of the reality of alien visitations.

For example, in recent times, modern humans have created vast amounts of garbage. You can find plastic garbage just about everywhere. It will take centuries for these plastics to biodegrade, and even then, they would leave evidence that could be detected thousands of years in the future.

I don't think any of the advocates of alien visitation have explicitly looked for garbage. There have been several finds that might be classed as garbage, but none that convince me.

Counter Argument: The Aliens Were Neat Freaks

If we do not find any ancient alien garbage, does that prove they didn't visit? You could argue that the reason we don't find garbage is that they were very advanced and did not create any garbage. Maybe they picked up everything before they left.

I think this is a possible explanation. Certainly many people today want to reduce the amount of garbage we produce. A more advanced society could have successfully reduced the volume of their garbage to the point that it is undetectable.

That isn't my concern here though. I did not set out to convince others that alien's did not visit. I wanted to find an example of the kind of evidence that would convince me that I was wrong about ancient alien visitation. Large volumes of alien garbage found in many parts of the world would be that kind of evidence.

Other related blog posts:

http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/a-brief-thought-about-the-fermi-paradox/

http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/why-would-ancient-astronauts-visit-earth/

http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/do-ancient-alien-probes-watch-earth/

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

"Felix" and the Exploration of Mars - Part 3

A while back I developed my ideas about how Mars would be explored to firm up the back story of my story "Felix". This week I came across some material that suggests that real scientists have thought along the same lines.

In my earlier blog post: http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/felix-and-the-exploration-of-mars/, I suggested that before people would visit Mars, we would send robots ahead to survey and then build a Mars base where people would live on Mars. I did a follow up to that blog post: http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/felix-and-the-exploration-of-mars-part-2/

I found this article: http://www.popsci.com/we-could-be-living-on-moon-in-10-years-or-less, that reports on a conference about the possibilities of building a Moon village. The papers from the conference can be found at: http://online.liebertpub.com/toc/space/4/1

Moon and Mars Bases

Their focus is on the creation of a Moon base rather than a Mars base, although one of the participants said that he saw it as a step toward the creation of a Mars base. Although their focus is on the Moon, the approach they proposed was similar to what I had come up with for Mars. That gives me a little more confidence in my ideas.

I hadn't really thought about it as the background to my story, but it makes a lot of sense to me to test out the approach on the Moon before any attempt to do the same on Mars. That aspect wouldn't show up explicitly in "Felix".

Ideas for My Story

This report got me to think about my story again. I think I may have a solution to one of the problems with the story. In the story my Mars rover, Felix, is lost, which is why the astronauts were sent to search. However, the quality of the satellite images is so good now, that it would be very difficult for a rover to get lost.

I came up with two things I could add to the story that would explain how Felix could get lost. My first idea is that there would be a great dust storm, which happen now and then on Mars. That would prevent satellites from tracking the rover, and would also cover up its track way. The second idea is that the big discovery would in a large cave, which would be hidden from the satellite's view.

The more I think about these ideas, the more I think they could give the story some added interest and drama. That is another problem I have with the story: it doesn't seem to have much excitement. I just might get back to my rewrite one of these days.

Image sources:

• https://www.wpclipart.com/space/moon/moon_lithograph.jpg.html
• https://www.wpclipart.com/space/solar_system/Mars/Mars_NASA_photo.jpg.html

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

"The Barrier", "The Disruptors", and Relationships

This week, besides work on "The Barrier", and "The Disruptors", I also thought about how I should develop the relationship back-stories for characters.

"The Barrier"

My rewrite of "The Barrier" has gone quite slowly, but I managed to finish 5 of the 39 scenes I plan to rewrite. Once do I get started it goes smoothly, but I find it far too easy to put it off.

So far all of the revised scenes run longer. Version 0.6 of the movie runs about 86 minutes. If all of the scenes I rewrite end up longer by the same amount, it looks like the new version could run almost 2 hours. That is longer than what I'd like it to be.

There several existing scenes that seem repetitious to me. Maybe I can shorten the movie if eliminate those. It can get tricky when you try to cut stuff out though. I read somewhere recently that it is much easier to add material to a script than take it out. On the other hand, I've found with some of my earlier movies, that cutting out material would often improve the movie.

"The Disruptors"

I had planned to leave "The Disruptors" until later, but I had a bunch of ideas about the characters that I had to write down before I forgot them. I have a plot in mind, but after I did "The 89th Key" I decided I needed to put more effort into creating the characters before I develop the plot in more detail.

Relationships

Another thing I learned from "The 89th Key" was that it is important to define the relationships between the characters. Relationships develop during the course of a story, but what I have in mind is to develop a back-story for the relationships. I am not sure how I should go about that. I've seen questionnaires writers have set up to help them develop their characters. I haven't seen any to help you develop your characters' relationships.

I came up with a few ideas:

§         Are they friends, enemies or neutral?

§         Are they rivals or team mates?

§         Do they trust each other?

§         Do they like each other?

§         How strong is the relationship?

§         When did they meet?

§         How did they meet?

§         Was it one event that brought them together, or did it develop slowly over a longer period?

§         What do they have in common?

§         What do they normally talk about?

§         What do they disagree about?

§         What aspects of the other are they unaware of?

I'll need to give this list some more thought. It seems to me that there must be many other important questions to ask. Some of questions seem to duplicate others.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog