The Dunning–Kruger Effect Gets My Goat

Much of the humour in the comic strip "Dilbert" is based on one of the characters demonstrating ignorance without being aware of their ignorance. This behaviour has a name, The Dunning–Kruger Effect, and in real life it makes my blood boil.

What is The Dunning–Kruger Effect?

"... ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" - Charles Darwin

The Dunning–Kruger Effect is what is known as a cognitive bias. A cognitive bias is where our minds take a short cut which results in an illogical decision. Wikipedia lists 167 different cognitive biases. 

The Dunning–Kruger Effect states that when people who lack knowledge or skill in an area, they tend to be over confident in their abilities, don't recognize real ability in other people and are unaware of their lack of knowledge.

"If you’re incompetent, you can’t know you’re incompetent. […] the skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is. - David Dunning

Dunning and Kruger say that education and training can correct this bias in people.

The Other Side of The Dunning–Kruger Effect

As the Charles Darwin quote above suggests, people who are skilled and knowledgeable, tend to be less confident. In my case I find that the more I know about a topic, the more aware I become of how things can go wrong. I come to believe that there are important aspects of the topic that I am still unaware of. This knowledge and belief make it hard for me to act with confidence.

Nate Silver's "prediction paradox" supports this view. He points out that less confident someone is in their prediction, the more likely they are to be right. Unfortunately, most people will trust some who appears confident over someone who is not.

Why The Dunning–Kruger Effect Gets Me Angry

Several times over my life I have gone through some very unpleasant experiences where The Dunning–Kruger Effect played a big role. These were situations where I was knowledgeable about an issue to a much greater degree than others who then ignored my opinions, which lead to bad decisions. Bad decisions that I then had to try to work around.

These situations often created a great deal of anger within myself. I was angry at the less knowledgeable people because they didn't take my opinions seriously. In my mind I would scream, "Why can't you see that you fool!" That isn't a diplomatically effective way to talk and I was usually able to keep my mouth shut. I suspect they got the message anyway.

Part of my anger was with myself, but, as with others, my behaviour reflected my own cognitive biases.

• Since I was aware of the danger that I might be the one who suffered from The Dunning–Kruger Effect, I was hesitant to speak out forcefully, since it could be me that was in the wrong. When I did speak out, I came across as tentative and unsure. That made it easy for others to ignore or discount my opinions.

• I also suffered from The Curse of Knowledge. That is a cognitive bias where you assume that if you know something, then others know it as well. In retrospect I realized that because I assumed too much about the other's level of knowledge before I talked to them, I wasn't in a position to explain the knowledge effectively when I became aware of their ignorance.

People will develop their positions quickly after they begin to consider an issue and then stick to it. If you are to have a real effect on their views, it is important to convey information before they have begun to form their opinion.

How Can I Use The Dunning–Kruger Effect In A Story?

In my better films, like "Line of Taxis", I have taken emotions I have experienced and placed them in a different context. I have never done this consciously with the anger I felt because of The Dunning–Kruger Effect. Maybe my feelings are still too raw to use.

I think that The Dunning–Kruger Effect and other cognitive biases can provide a basis for more complex character and motivations. They allow a way for a "bad guy" to behave badly, when they are not really a bad person; just flawed in their thinking.

Off hand, I don't see cognitive biases as a basis for a story, but they can certainly add complexity to a conflict situation.

In "The Barrier" I can see some aspects of The Dunning–Kruger Effect. Both the protagonist, Arthur Macdonald, and his boss, Brandon Baker, struggle against it. Since I didn't try to include it deliberately, I didn't develop it fully. When it comes time to revise the movie, there may be some opportunity to exploit cognitive biases much more.

For More Information

If you want to know more about The Dunning–Kruger Effect and cognitive bias, Wikipedia has several articles you can read.

·         http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

·         http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias

·         http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

·         http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curse_of_knowledge

You can watch the movies I mention in this blog on these pages:

·         "The Barrier" - http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/the-barrier/

·         "Line of Taxis" - http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/filmlist/line-of-taxis

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A Virtual Parliament

picture source: 

W. Lloyd MacKenzie, via Flickr @

http://www.flickr.com/photos/saffron_blaze/

Lately, while procrastinating about "Felix", I've thought about some old ideas that I could use to create new stories. One of these is what I call Virtual Parliament, where electronic communication is used to change the way parliament works.

One of the problems with governing a large country like Canada, is that  members of parliament and senators spent much of their time in Ottawa and away from the people they represent. This creates a barrier between government and the people.

My idea was that this problem could be addressed if we could create a Virtual Parliament. The technology of the internet could be used to replace the need for parliament to travel to Ottawa to meet. MPs and Senators could live in the constituencies they represent, while they continued to have their parliamentary sessions on-line.

There are pros and cons to this solution, and since my objective is to develop new stories, it is the cons that would provide the conflict needed for a story. I'll start with some of the pros.

• A Virtual Parliament would allow politicians to better develop and maintain their relationships with the people they represent. This would give politicians a better sense of what people wanted.

• A Virtual Parliament would improve the quality of debate. Debates would not need to be conducted in real time. This would allow politicians more of an opportunity to study and review discussions before they asked questions or voted.

• A Virtual Parliament would create a more transparent environment where people could watch their representatives more closely.

While my initial idea was a kind of a utopian vision of politics, I suspect that there could be some real drawbacks to this approach.

• A Virtual Parliament would reduce informal contact between members of Parliament. When people rarely meet face to face, formal contacts can lead to conflicts that make it more difficult for politicians to work out the compromises needed for effective government. It is much easier for misunderstandings to arise from communication over the internet.  Anyone who has followed on-line discussions has seen how badly it can turn out.

• A Virtual Parliament would create a conflict between a politician's desire to serve their constituents and their desire to maintain political connections. Some will see this as a benefit rather than a problem, but it can also make it more difficult for the politician to be effective.

• A Virtual Parliament would undermine the importance of political parties. Again, some people will see this as a benefit. However, without political parties, parliament could become much more volatile, which again could undermine its effectiveness.

I don't think these problems are that serious. To be successful, politicians need strong communications skills and the ability to exercise extreme diplomacy when they deal with people they disagree with or even despise. These skills should allow them to avoid or deal with the problems of communication in a Virtual Parliament.

In my case, I want to see conflicts that could be the basis for stories. It is the pit falls of communication that provide the greatest opportunity for conflict and it is the communication skills of politicians that are the tools they need to resolve the conflicts.

This all sounds very idealistic to me, which makes me wonder if it might not be a good option for story telling. Also, my personal experiences have not given me a real understanding of the communication skills of politicians, which would make it harder for me to write a realistic story.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

Some More Experiments for "The Barrier"

Xtranormal State will be rereleased, but it isn't clear just when that will happen, and what will be available. In the mean time I will do some experiments with StatePlus on some changes I want to make to "The Barrier".

There are several changes I want to make to "The Barrier" that I wanted to try out.

For example, I want to replace some or all of the synthetic voices with real voices. I tried that out with my own voice and it looks like it isn't problem technically. I do need some people with better voices than I have though. I'll need money to pay them too.

This week I focussed on changes to the opening scene. In it, my protagonist drives along a road and then narrowly avoids a collision with a big truck. In the version I used for the current version of the movie, I just have a close up of his face and appropriate sound effects. From the responses I've had, this doesn't make the situation clear to many people.

The kind of action I want for the scene really can't be done directly in State or StatePlus. There isn't a set that is appropriate and there isn't a big truck. They do have a car though and I think I can work around the limitations to get what I want.

My plan is to create the appropriate set in Blender, like I did with the open house scene where I created a small gymnasium. I would need to create a big truck in Blender as well. I plan to work on those changes in Blender later.

If I want to incorporate the car and my character from State/StatePlus I will need to modify the set with the car so that it has a green screen background. I played around with that this week.

The set for the car is a bit tricky to alter to create the green background. Some of the elements of the set are actually props rather than parts of the set, so I needed to find those props and change them as well.

I still have bits and pieces of the set that are not green, so I still have some detective work to do. However, I may be able to get the shots I want with what I have now.

The next thing I need to do for this scene is to create the set in Blender, then I can start to match up the car and the set.

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Writer's Block and "Felix"

As I continue to struggle with writer's block, I ask myself, why do I want to write "Felix"? Maybe that will get me restarted.

On one level  a story can be just a story; an exercise in entertainment. But to write a story a writer needs motivation. What is my motivation? In general I see any creative activity as a way for the creator to express their personal philosophy. When I look at the stories and movies I've done, they all reflect ideas or emotions that were important to me. That is even true of projects where I didn't consciously set out to make a point.

What about "Felix"?

My initial inspiration for "Felix" was a desire to rewrite one of H. P. Lovecraft's short stories. At the time I started, I didn't give any thought to what I wanted to say in the story. I believe that if I want to finish this story and make it worth reading, then I need to clarify in my mind what I want the story about.

In many of Lovecraft's stories he tries to evoke a sense that people are just a small and insignificant part of the Universe. His protagonists are horrified by that revelation. It is not that the other beings are evil, but that they simply don't care about humanity.

At the end of "Felix" I have a similar revelation. As I said in an earlier blog post, it is very difficult to hide the climax to a story like this. Since there can be no surprise ending to the story, my focus needs to be on how my protagonists react to the revelation. In the current version of the story I have the two protagonists react in different ways.

The story up until the climax needs to build up the reader's empathy for the protagonists. I need to develop the characters to the point where, while their reactions may be unexpected, the reader can understand why the characters react the way they do.

What I want the reader to think about while they read is how the characters might react to the revelation. Then, after they have read the story, I want them to go on to speculate how they would react in their place. I do want to provoke an emotional response, but I don't believe I would call it fear.

I would like reader to find what I seek; an acceptance of the Universe as it is. So often we get caught up in the travails and frustrations of our day to day existence. I believe that it is easier to find happiness and enjoy life if we see our troubles as not that important in the whole scheme of things.

This seems like a mighty ambitious goal for a little story like mine. I find it rather intimidating to think of it in those terms, which doesn't help much with my writer's block. On the other hand, just because I might not succeed is no reason not to try. A failed attempt may still be worth the effort.

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Transportation Planning and "Bad" Teachers

Conflict is an important part of story telling. Fortunately for the writer, there is no shortage of conflict to draw from. Recent reports about plans to evaluate teachers illustrates one of the conflicts I had in my work in transportation planning.

Conflict in Transportation Planning

For much of my career in Transportation Planning I advocated a program to monitor and adjust the transportation plan. This is the application of the scientific method to planning. I would likened it to keeping your eyes open when you drive your car.

I strongly believe in the value of monitoring, but because it is so often misunderstood and misused it is very difficult to implement

In the last few years before I retired, I was assigned to develop a monitoring program. I ran into a lot of resistance. Partly it may have been my style that generated resistance, but then many others have faced the same resistance.

My rationale for a monitoring program was that there were too many unknowns that could not be accounted for in advance. The world does not always unfold as we expect. Sometimes population growth is slower, some times faster. A transportation solution that worked well in other cities may not work well in yours. Changes in fuel costs and transportation technology can have a profound impact on how successful a plan is.

When you develop a plan, it isn't reasonable to account for events that are unlikely to happen. But, there are so many possible events that are unlikely, it is likely that some will happen. We just can't know which ones.

Why, if there is so much uncertainty about the future, would any rational person resist a monitoring program?

I think the main reason is the misapplication of such programs by managers and political leaders who fail to understand how these programs actually work. They see it as a way to put the blame for bad outcomes on someone else. Naturally, anyone who works on transportation planning will see such programs as a personal attack on them.

It was never my intention to approach monitoring in this way, but many people reacted as if it was. The history of misuse undermines any attempt to apply the proper application of the method.

Where I Come From on This

As I noted above, "monitoring" is the application of the scientific method to transportation planning. Although I was an advocate since early in my career, it wasn't until I read W. Edwards Deming's book "Out of the Crisis" that I was able to understand what was involved.

Deming's ideas are not easy to learn. It took me six months to read the book, and even longer to absorb a superficial understanding of his methods. I fear that even a very intelligent person who has only a rudimentary understanding of probability and statistics will not be able to understand. It is no wonder that his ideas are so often misused.

The purpose of Deming's method is to understand what factors affect the outcome, and then address the areas most likely to make a difference. Deming says that it is the system that is the biggest factor and the individuals are constrained by the system. To blame the individuals for poor outcomes is to divert efforts from the changes that need to made to the system.

Getting Rid of Bad Teachers

Earlier this month The Alberta Government released a report that advocated more stringent testing of teachers. (source:  http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Teachers+union+leader+calls+report+offensive/9810740/story.html). In it I see the same problems I saw in my work on transportation planning. The focus is on "the teachers" as the problem, and the goal is to get rid of "bad teachers". That might not be their real intent, but it is certainly how most people would interpret the report.

As with transportation planning, this is the wrong focus and will only divert attention from more productive actions. A recent report in the U.S. by the American Statistical Association (ASA) reported that only 1% to 14% of the variability in how successful students were was due to teachers. (source: http://www.amstat.org/policy/pdfs/ASA_VAM_Statement.pdf).

This statement needs some clarification. Teachers do have a major impact on students, but what the ASA talks about is the variation. It may be easier to see this as a measure of the difference between good teachers and bad teachers. What this suggests is that even if extreme measures are used to replace all the "bad teachers", the effect on student success would be small. It may even make the problems worse.

There are other factors that are more important and these need to be the focus. A report from the American Education Research Association and the National Academy of Education provides more information on other factors. (see: https://edpolicy.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/getting-teacher-evaluation-right-challenge-policy-makers.pdf)

Sadly, it looks like many more years will be wasted while administrators try to fix the wrong problem.

Where Can This Conflict be Used in a Story

A major goal of this blog is to explore ideas for my stories and movies, so I want to consider the conflicts above as the basis for future stories. I do see this conflict as important, but I can also see that the complexity of the issue would make it difficult to express in story form. Long discussions would be needed to properly explain the conflict. Unfortunately, long discussions would quickly drive away the audience.

When I made my movie "Line of Taxis" I decided to draw on the emotions I felt from a particular situation, but used none of the details of the actual situation. Partly that was to create some distance to allow me to express what I felt, but it also put the focus on the human and emotional issues. I think this helped make "Line of Taxis" a success. As Gene Roddenberry said, "What people are most interested in is other people."

Maybe I can do something similar with this issue. The essence of the conflict is a misunderstanding where the protagonist has a benign goal, but the antagonist sees it as a threat to them. The challenge would be about how to bridge that gap and remove the misunderstanding, and do it in a way that is entertaining. Since I wasn't able to do that in the real world, I'm not sure how I could do it in a fictional world.

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"Felix": Should I Give Away Plot Twists?

Vincent van Gogh [Public domain]

I suspect my fear about revealing too much may be unfounded.

I think there are good reasons to unveil at least some of the secrets of the story.

Alfred Hitchcock on Suspense

If we go by what Alfred Hitchcock says, it may even be a good thing to do. He used to explain the nature of suspense with an example.

In a scene two men are sit and talk while a time bomb under the table ticks away. If you don't tell the audience the bomb is there, they get a momentary shock when it goes off.

On the other hand, if you do show the bomb to the audience, they will anticipate the explosion throughout the scene. This will have a greater impact on the audience as they imagine the outcome.

"A Woman Alone in a Cruel World"

One of my stories does use this approach, although I didn't do it intentionally. In "A Woman Alone in a Cruel World" (http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/stories/a-woman-alone-in-a-cruel-world/) most readers said they could see the "end coming a mile away". I learned two things from that.

First, it is very hard to create a story with an unexpected end. Second, what inspired me to write the story was the anticipation of how the end would play out. Unless you had a pretty good idea what the climax of the story was, you couldn't have that anticipation.

Hold Back Something?

I've read elsewhere that if you leave some questions unanswered at the end of a story, you will intrigue the reader and the story will stay in their mind longer. A reader would then explore the story in greater length and thus derive more pleasure from it.

In the "A Woman Alone in a Cruel World" I don't describe the woman's reaction or thoughts at the end of the story. I felt that would be redundant because by that time the reader would have already imagined what they would be. Since I don't say explicitly what her reaction is, the reader can later reconsider their own interpretation. The after effect encourages them to contemplate how they would feel in a similar situation.

In "Felix" I think it may be appropriate to let on the basics of the story and its climax. The details of the story's final revelation do leave room for speculation. I am more reluctant to be open about the inner lives of the characters. I think those inner lives add depth to the story and help the reader to understand how they react. But, as it is, even in the story I don't want to reveal too much about their back stories.

So what will I do? I'm not really that sure. I have some time now to think about it and there is no rush to make a decision.

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Slow Progress and Abandoned Projects

It bothers me that over the years I've abandoned many of the projects I've started. I try to find a way to see abandonment is a more positive light.

I've found it quite hard to make any progress on my current projects, specifically my short story "Felix" and my movie "The Barrier". I made no progress to speak of over the last couple months. My top priority has been my wife's health. That isn't the reason for my lack of progress though. I haven't felt much enthusiasm for the projects. I think that once I get back to the projects in a serious way, I'll generate some enthusiasm, but it is hard to get started.

I've run into this same type of barrier in the past and often I've abandoned projects to focus on others that I find of greater interest. One of the problems I have had is that I try to work on too many projects at once and, as a result, make no progress on any of them. That forced me to abandon several projects.

This week I did a review of the various writing and movie projects I've started and those I've completed. I came up with about 130 projects that I started, of which I have completed 25. That means that I've abandoned almost 3 of every 4 projects I started. That sounds bad, but it was actually better than I expected before I started.

Not all of my abandoned projects went to waste. I was sometimes able to reuse some of the ideas in other projects I did later. Also, I found that I learned from each project, even if I didn't finish it.

In my mind I think of abandonment as a failure, but that may be the wrong way to think about it. For example, years ago I saw an interview with Paul McCartney, where he said he often wouldn't write down a song at first. He felt that if he couldn't remember it later, then maybe it wasn't a song worth keeping. If I can't get excited about the projects I work on, why would I expect people others to find them worth their time.

People do say that the hard work of writing is in the rewrite, and a rewrite can make a huge improvement in the final product. I know that this has worked for me in the past. All the same, I do think that some projects should be abandoned. You'll never have the time to follow up all of the ideas you have, so why waste time on your weaker ideas.

I must admit that I am at something of a loss to say which projects I should drop. I have noticed that now and then, a project will take on a life of its own. That doesn't always happen right away, but, once it does, the project becomes much easier to do.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog