Super Habitable Planets and the Fermi Paradox

Recently I read that some scientists think that there may be planets more suitable to life than Earth. How does this relate to the Fermi Paradox?

What is the Fermi Paradox?

The Fermi Paradox comes from a question that the physicist Enrico Fermi asked during a discussion of flying saucers in the late 1940s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

When you consider the age of the Universe, it seems likely that civilizations should have developed on other planets. If so, they should have been able to colonize the entire galaxy by now. Since we see no evidence of aliens, the question we need to ask is "where are they?"

Over the years since then, scientists have come up with a variety of solutions to this question. If there are super habitable planets, how can we explain this paradox?

What is a Super Habitable Planet?

René Heller and John Armstrong suggest that many exo-planets may be more conducive to life than Earth.  (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superhabitable_planet) Briefly, a super habitable planet would be larger than Earth and orbit a smaller, and cooler, star.

Heller and Armstrong suggested that a planet about twice the mass of Earth would be the most suitable for life. The larger size would help maintain a thicker and more stable atmosphere for a longer time.

Cooler stars, like orange dwarf and red dwarf stars, are much more common that yellow dwarf stars like the Sun. The habitable zone around these star would be stable for longer periods. This would allow more time for life to develop and evolve on a planet in the habitable zone.

There is a lot of room for debate about the habitability of planets. For this post, I will accept these ideas.

Civilizations on Super Habitable Planets

If super habitable planets are common, then why do we se no evidence of them? I think it may be that conditions on these planets make it more difficult for advanced civilizations to develop the technology to explore space.

Michael Chorost in his article "Do Super-Earths Trap the Civilizations On Them?" considers the possibility that the higher gravity and the required escape velocity would make it harder to reach space. (see https://cdn.psychologytoday.com/blog/world-wide-mind/201211/do-super-earths-trap-the-civilizations-them). He concludes that these limitations would not stop development of space travel. I think he is too optimistic and that the additional effort may make it unlikely that these civilizations would explore beyond their own planet.

A second explanation is that civilizations on super-earths may not be aware of space. These planets would have deeper and thicker atmospheres, which would limit their ability to see the stars and other planets in the sky. This would be particularly true of planets around smaller stars. These planets will become tidally locked and life could only survive in a narrow twilight band around the planet. The thick atmosphere and the brighter sky would prevent them from seeing the stars.

Lonely Planets

Another possibility would be planets that are the only sizable body in a solar system. Without an nearby destination, like the Moon and Mars for Earth, there would be no easy first steps. Also, without other planets, the imaginations of civilizations on these planets could not develop a science fiction literature about travel to other planets. With out this fantasy, there would be less drive to develop space technology.

Summary

One possible explanation of the Fermi Paradox is that most civilizations on habitable planets are unable to develop space technology. This may be due to the limits imposed by the nature of super habitable planets on the ability to reach space. The nature of these planets may also limit the ability of these civilizations to even conceive of the idea of travel beyond their own planet.

Earth may be rare, in that it is large enough for a technological civilization to develop, but is also small enough that space travel is relatively easy to develop.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

Ancient Alien Probes and the Breakthrough Starshot Proposal

The Breakthrough Starshot  proposal from Stephen Hawking and Yuri Milner got me to think about ancient alien probes again. Their proposal adds a twist to my earlier thoughts.

I've listed the ancient alien probe blog posts I did earlier at the bottom of this post.

Hawking, Milner and their collaborators have proposed a plan to send probes to visit nearby star systems. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakthrough_Starshot  

Their proposal is to build a multitude of centimetre sized probes with meter sized light sails, which would be accelerated to 20% the speed of light by huge lasers. This would allow them to reach the nearest star system, Alpha Centauri, in about 20 years.

One of the research goals is to develop the technology to build useful probes that are a thin wafer about 1 or 2 centimetres in size. While this is a big challenge, they point out that smart phones already have similar capabilities and the bsic components are almost that small.

When I've thought of alien probes in the past, I've always envisioned them as similar to the monolith in "2001: A Space Odyssey". It's my favourite movie, so that influenced my thoughts. I assumed the probe would be of a similar size, something on the order of 3 to 4 metres.

The Starshot proposal made me realize that alien probes could well be no more than a few centimetres tall. A probe that small wouldn't look very impressive, unless you are an ant.

It is quite realistic to search for a 4 metre tall probe. Large parts of the Moon and Mars have already been photographed in sufficient detail to spot something that large. However, a search for a 4 centimetre tall probe is far beyond what we are currently capable of.

A failure to find an alien probe with our current technology would not prove that there are no alien probes in the solar system.

Some other posts on Ancient Alien Probes:

"Felix" and The Ancient Astronauts

http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/felix-and-the-ancient-astronauts/

If There Really Were Ancient Astronauts, What Kind of Evidence Would We Find?

http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/if-there-really-were-ancient-astronauts-what-kind-of-evidence-would-we-find/

Why Would Ancient Astronauts Visit Earth?

http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/why-would-ancient-astronauts-visit-earth/

Do Ancient Alien Probes Watch Earth?

http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/do-ancient-alien-probes-watch-earth/

A Brief Thought About the Fermi Paradox

http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/a-brief-thought-about-the-fermi-paradox/

Ancient Alien Visitations: Show Me the Garbage

http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/ancient-alien-visitations-show-me-the-garbage/

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

Preliminary Version of New Scene for "The Barrier"

I've completed the preliminary version of the new scene I wanted to create for my transportation planning movie: "The Barrier". I wanted to make sure I could do it before I continued with the script rewrite.

When I'm ready to make the new version of "The Barrier", I will do a final version of this scene. For this trial version I used some old stills of Arthur, my main character. When I do the final version I will do an animated version of Arthur with Nawmal. For me, it seems like the scene runs slowly, so I may go back and speed it up. It may seem faster after I add the animated Arthur.

Now, it's back to the script rewrite.

You can watch previous version of "The Barrier" (version 0.6) here:

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

Tests Shots for A New Scene in "The Barrier"

For the next version of my transportation planner movie, "The Barrier", I want to add a scene where Arthur makes video of the place where he wants to put the barrier.

I had wanted to do this for the original movie, but thought it would be too difficult. I decided to use Blender to create the scene. I made good progress this week, and have some test shots to share. Later I will use Nawmal to add Arthur to the scene.

You can watch the test shots here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oitpW0NeYg

I would like to come up with a better looking SUV than I created for the video.

You can watch previous version of "The Barrier" (version 0.6) here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATcKnFAwlU0

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

There Are Two Types of Money; I Think

For a while now, I've mused about how it might help to understand money if we think there are two different kinds of money. I think that other people might see some value in this idea.

In a nutshell, the idea is that there are two very different ways in which people use and think about money. I suspect this idea could help us gain insight into some of the economic problems we struggle with.

So What Do I Know

Someone once said that everyone has the right to opinion, but no right to be taken seriously. Should you take my ideas seriously?

I am not an economist. I did take a few courses back in University, and I have had an ongoing interest in the field. All the same, I can't claim to have much expertise in economics. Economists may well have discussed and discarded these ideas long ago and I just don't know about it.

However;

For most of my career I created and used transportation planning models. These are similar in some ways to economic models. As a result of my work, I've had to make a big effort to understand the behaviour of complex dynamic systems. The economy is certainly complex and dynamic. It is from this angle I've approached these ideas.

Get Rich Literature

I never had a real drive to get rich, and have been successful in not becoming rich. However, I did read some books and articles about how to become rich. What I learned is that rich people and the rest of us look at money in very different ways.

The non rich, for the most part, see money as what they need to live their life. Money is for food, clothes and a place to live. Most of us do save money for use later, but it is still meant as a means to buy the things we need to live later in our lives.

Not being rich, I find it difficult to explain exactly how the rich see money differently. From what I can tell, the rich see money as an end in itself. When you have large amounts of money, you have power and influence. While rich people do spend more money on food, clothes and a place to live, they don't see that as the main purpose of money.

A Brief Aside About Money and The Economy

The flow of money is key for a successful economy. It is not so much how much money there is, but how it moves through the economy that determines the strength of the economy. The same dollar can be re-spent hundreds of times over the course of a year.

A Simple Model of the Economy

In the chart below I've tried to show a simplified view of how the economy works to help explain what the two types of money are. I left out some important aspects of the economy because I did not think they were needed and might just confuse the issue.

In this view, I have two classes of people, owners and workers. Of course many people are both. I want to keep things simple, so I will treat them as if they are separate.

Owners invest in the economy, then gain profits and increases in the value of the property they own. Workers contribute their work to the economy and receive wages in return. The workers then spend the money they've earned on the products the economy has produced.

Owners also purchase products for their own use, but it is small compared to what workers spend and often small compared to what they gain in profit and asset value. I decided to ignore this spending.

In summary, investment and spending go into the economy, and wages and profits come out. How much workers can spend is dependent on how much they receive in wages. How much owners can invest is dependent on how much they receive in profits.

How to Have a Healthy Economy

We want to have an economy that works best for everyone. How money is split between wages and profits has an important effect on the health of the economy and the equity between rich and poor.

An extreme example will help explain this. If all the money went into profit and none went to wages, then workers would have no money to spend. If no money comes in from spending, the economy will collapse. Something similar would happen if all the money went to wages and none went to profits. Somewhere between these two extremes the economy will be stable.

There must, therefore, be an ideal split between profits and wages that produces the best economy. Send too much money to wages or send too much money to profit and everyone is worse off.

The important question is therefore: how do we get the split between wages and profits to match the ideal?

Thought Experiment: Two Currencies

I see two different types of money. Profits and investments are one kind of money. Wages and spending are a second kind of money.

For our thought experiment, assume that we have different currencies for the two types of money. We further assume that there is a floating exchange rate between the two currencies. We will call the profit and investment money dollars, and the wages and spending money donuts.

Would this arrangement help keep the split between the two types of money close to the ideal? I'd bet dollars to donuts that it would. ;)

If too much money goes to profits, this will cause dollars to have a higher inflation rate than donuts. This would push up the value of donuts relative to dollars. The effect would be to move the split between profits and wages back towards the ideal.

Similarly, if too much money went to wages, it would cause donuts to have  higher inflation rate than dollars. This would push up the value of dollars relative to donuts. Again, this would move the split between profits and wages back towards the ideal.

I don't see how this could be put into practice. It would be a very disruptive and difficult transition. However, I believe that it is a useful way to look at the issue.

Flaws in the Theory

No doubt, with the simplicity of my analysis, important factors that could affect this idea could be missed. Please let me know of any you may notice.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

Traffic Simulation Replacement for "The Barrier"

There is scene in "The Barrier" where two characters watch a traffic simulation. I wasn't happy with the quality of the animation I did for the simulation, so this week I created a replacement for the next version of "The Barrier".

When I did the previous version of "The Barrier" I used MS PowerPoint to create the animation of the traffic simulation. At the time I didn't know to use any other software I could use to do the animation. I did consider asking some people I knew to do a video with a real traffic simulation program, but decided against that.

For the new animation I used Blender. I used Blender for some images for "The Barrier" and later to do the new opening scene of the current version of "The Barrier". I used the Blender file I created for that scene as a basis for the new animation.

I posted a comparison between the new and the old animations on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELFPtgbhc-k

The video I want to replace is at about the 36 minute mark of the current version of "The Barrier". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATcKnFAwlU0

In my original plan for "The Barrier" I wanted to include a scene where Arthur shoots a video of the road where he wants to build the barrier. I dropped that idea because I didn't have the ability to make it work. With the experience I have with Blender now, I think I can put together a decent scene.

I made more changes for the revised script for "The Barrier". The parts I'm working on now have more drastic changes, so I think I will need to go back later and tune them up.

I think I'm getting closer to the point where it makes sense to get a license to use Nawmal. At least to update the STATE files with the changes I want to make.

I still won't be ready to record new voices for the movie though. I haven't decided how to handle that piece of work yet. Useful advice would be kindly accepted.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

"The Barrier": How Specific Do I Need to be About the Transportation Model?

In my initial version of "The Barrier" I was kind of skimpy on the details of the issues with the transportation model. With the rewrite, I felt I needed to make that more detailed.

I revised 4 more scenes this week. I've done 14 of the 39 scenes I plan to rewrite. Most of the remaining scenes have only minor changes, but there are four scenes that need major rewrites. In those scenes I had the characters talk in vague generalities about the issues that come up about the transportation model. I started to work on those specifics this week.

I've run into some barriers of my own.

Hazy Memory

It's been 13 years since I last worked in transportation forecasting, and 7 years since I actively kept up with developments in the field. My memory has faded somewhat over those years. Transportation models have thousands of details that can become controversial. I struggled to remember a handful of major issues. I'm sure that as I think about it more, some more will come to mind.

Dated Knowledge

Since I haven't kept up on new developments, the criticisms of transportation models may well have changed. Around the time I left the field, new types of models were being introduced that were supposed to address some of the major criticisms of existing transportation models.

It may well be that some of the issues I want to use in the movie are no longer relevant. No doubt there would be some criticism of  the newer models, but I wouldn't know what they would be. I'm not keen to do a lot of research to update my self. Maybe someone can give me some suggestions I can use.

I do remember one criticism of the newer models was how much more time and effort they took to run. That isn't an issue I can use in my movie. Another was the perennial complaint about models that they were black boxes that nobody understood. I already use this in the movie. I even call the model software "BlackBox by VooDoo".

What I don't believe has changed is that forecasting models are still the weak link in the planning process. Knowledgeable people who want to question transportation plans will go after the forecasts. You can see the same pattern in the climate change debate.

Avoid Confusion

I worry that if I get too specific about the transportation model, people without some background in the field will get confused. On the other hand, the vague descriptions I used in the last version of "The Barrier" confused people anyway. I need to strike a balance where most viewers can follow what is happening.

The issues with the model are what Alfred Hitchcock used to call a McGuffin. It's what the characters in the movie think is important, but it isn't important to the story or the audience.

Options

My first inclination is to use the jargon that transportation planners would use. The problem with that approach is that then I would have to explain what the term means. I've done that in a few places already. I had the developer play dumb to force the engineers to explain what they meant.

In the scenes I need to revise, the characters should know what they talking about, which eliminates any excuse for characters to explain. The approach I have in mind is to have the characters describe the real world implication of the issue, rather than use the jargon. That might grate on people who do know the jargon.

For example, I want the consultant to criticise the volume delay curve equation. When I have Dennis talk about the note the consultant sent, he could say something like, "Here he questions how we calculate the delays from traffic congestion." Most people know what delay and traffic congestion mean. They don't need to know how the model estimates the delay.

Issues To Use

I've come up with a few more issues I think I can use.

·         Parking cost - this would affect whether people drive or take the bus.

·         Pedestrians mode constant in the modal choice model - this would affect how many people walk instead for drive.

·         Ride sharing - this would affect car pooling. This might include newer services like Uber or Lyft.

·         Trip distribution exponent - this would affect where people would go to work or shop.

·         Cycling - I plan to use a reference to cycling elsewhere in the revised script, so I wouldn't want to use it here.

I'll need to work on these issues some more before I go ahead with my rewrite. I still might decide to do some more research.

You can watch the previous version of "The Barrier" here: http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/the-barrier/

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog