Should I create my own conspiracy Theory? The Other Earth Conspiracy.

I've had an interest in conspiracy theories for a long time, even though I am very sceptical about them in general. I've been tempted to create my own conspiracy theory for fun and profit. I've hesitated to do that because I was afraid that people might take it seriously.

Years ago I got interested in the Kennedy assassination conspiracy theories. At first I kept an open mind, but, as I learned more about the theories, I began to think they were just too implausible to be true. My thoughts on the conspiracy theory led me to make my movie "Who Shot the President". http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/filmlist/who-shot-the-president/

"Who Shot the President" resulted in more threats than money, but more people have watched that than any of my other movies. I didn't like the threats, but I could see that there was a great deal of interest in the topic. Like any other filmmaker, I do want to find an audience and there is clearly one that looks for conspiracy theories.

In the past I hesitated to pursue conspiracy theories in my movies for a couple of reasons.

First, I don't want to trick people to get them to watch my movies. To me, that seems very dishonest. If I take that route I would feel I have abandoned the reasons that I wanted to make movies in the first place. It wasn't just to make money, although that would be nice. I wanted to say something of value.

Second, I worry that some people might take my conspiracy theory seriously. Even some very outrageous conspiracy theories have their adherents. Even if presented as broad satire, some people will still want to believe.

Despite these concerns I've developed a fake conspiracy theory.

The Other Earth Conspiracy

A conspiracy needs a good name, to catch people's attention. The theory is about NASA, but I can't call it the NASA Conspiracy, because there are already plenty of conspiracies about NASA. For now I'll call it The Other Earth Conspiracy. That sounds lame to me, but maybe I can come up with a better name later.

The theory is based on some strange behaviours on the part of NASA. I've listed those below.

1. NASA has begun to search for other earths

NASA has for the last 20 or so years supported the research of astronomers in their search for extra solar planets. They have a website devoted to this work:

"Planet Quest - The Search for Another Earth" at http://planetquest.jpl.nasa.gov/

While the stated reason for this research is scientific curiosity, the question that comes to mind is, "What is the big rush?" After all, it may be millennia before we could ever actually visit them.

2. NASA has developed plans for a warp drive space ship

Most of us of heard of warp drive from the "Star Trek" TV programs and movies. They use warp drive as a plot device to get the characters from one solar system to another quickly so the crew can have a new adventure every week.

The idea seems like a pretty far out science fiction invention. However, NASA has designed a space ship that uses warp drive. See: "NASA Reveals Latest Warp-Drive Ship Designs" at http://www.iflscience.com/space/nasa-reveals-latest-warp-drive-ship-designs

As with the search for another earth, we have to ask the question, "What is the big rush?" So far as we know, no one has even demonstrated that warp drive is even possible.

3. NASA has wasted a lot of money

In recent years it seems like every one criticises NASA for inefficiency, mismanagement, and waste. Here are a few samples:

·         GAO: True Cost of SLS, Orion Unclear http://www.spacenews.com/article/civil-space/40610gao-true-cost-of-sls-orion-unclear

·         More Wasteful EPO Spending at NASA http://nasawatch.com/archives/2014/01/more-wasteful-e.html

·         NASA: James Webb Space Telescope to Now Cost $8.7 Billion http://www.space.com/12759-james-webb-space-telescope-nasa-cost-increase.html

·         $4 billion over budget, four years past schedule: Meet Northrop's problem program http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/blog/fedbiz_daily/2014/04/4-billion-over-budget-four-years-past-schedule.html?page=all

What is odd, is that NASA used to have a very good reputation. Remember, who else besides NASA has promised the Moon and delivered?

What happened to NASA? Now it seems like they can't even do anything without massive cost over runs. Can that really be true?

One begins to wonder, "Are these projects really that badly run?" Could it be that these projects are just a front? Could it be that the money is actually spent on other, secret, projects?

4. NASA is a leader in the study of global warming

One of NASA's activities is the study of Earth's climate. See: http://climate.nasa.gov/. Many people have expressed scepticism about global warming, and say NASA exaggerates the danger.

But a recent study paints a very different picture. The authors of "Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?" found that scientists have tended to under estimate and under play the effects of global warming. For example the shrinkage of the Arctic polar icecap has been much greater than even the worst case scenario.

The original article can be found at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378012001215, but since it is behind a pay wall, you can read about some of the results at: http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-scientists-esld.html.

The question that comes to mind is, "Why does NASA want to downplay the threat of global warming?" Are they just too cautious, or could there be a more frightening explanation?

What are we to make of all of this? Possibly they are nothing but a collection of unrelated facts. But, they might also point to a conspiracy. There are a lot of unanswered questions about NASA is up to.

• Could it be that they have discovered that human life on Earth is doomed?
• Could it be that they have abandoned any hope they can stop the inevitable?
• Could it be that they have planned an escape for the elite and themselves?
• Could it be that they have started to build the warp drive space ship to escape?
• Could it be that they have started to look for another planet to escape to?
• Could it be that they have diverted money to pay for the escape?
• Could it be that they have down played the danger of global warming to keep the general population in the dark until it is too late?

This all seems too far fetched to be real. But who knows? Maybe, somewhere far out in space, a new earth orbits around a dim star in our sky, and around that new earth, astronauts from our old Earth have already looked down on their new home.

Warning: This is just an exercise in speculation and I don't believe that any of it is true. Please don't take it seriously.

I realize that this conspiracy theory is similar to "Alternative 3". See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_3

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

"Felix" and The Ancient Astronauts

The Red One

They say that reading is part of writing, so I think I can count some of my recent reading as work on "Felix". I've read a bunch of stuff about Lovecraft and ancient astronauts recently, which is something touched on in my story.

Pseudoscience

When I first learnt of Erich von Däniken’s "Chariots of the Gods", I was immediately convinced of it's veracity. However, as I read more, all of the claims disappeared in a puff of smoke. This lead to my interest in scepticism.

I have long since stopped reading the work of the people who perpetuate von Däniken’s ideas. These proponents haven't come up with any convincing evidence for their hypothesis. Nonetheless, I am still fascinated with the idea. In part, it is because the idea is, to me, plausible.

Recently I started to follow Jason Colavito blog about ancient astronauts and pseudo archaeology. See: http://www.jasoncolavito.com/blog. He takes a sceptical stance and investigates claims in some detail. One his major claims is that people who make claims about ancient astronauts were inspired by the stories of H. P. Lovecraft. He published the book "The Cult of Alien Gods" about his ideas. See: http://www.jasoncolavito.com/cult-of-alien-gods.html.

Jason Colavito links to Michael S. Heiser blogs. See: http://drmsh.com/ and http://michaelsheiser.com/PaleoBabble/. Heiser has debunked some ancient astronaut claims.

One of the disturbing aspects of many the ancient astronaut claims is their inherent racism. Although it doesn't often appear overtly, many of the arguments used boil down to "those people" were not capable of building something so impressive. Lovecraft often expressed racist views, which many of his modern day fans are uncomfortable with.

Science Fiction

Over the years I've come across many stories and movies that invoke the possibility of extraterrestrial visitors to Earth in the distant past. As noted above, H. P. Lovecraft's Cthulhu Mythos stories involve extraterrestrial visitors who have influenced history. He wrote most of these stories between 1926 and 1936.

Recently I came across an earlier story, Jack London's "The Red One", which was published in 1918. It concerns a man who finds an alien artefact deep in the interior of Guadalcanal. The descriptions of the natives in the story are quite racist, although it isn't clear to me if this reflects London's views or those of the character in the story. The story is available from Project Gutenberg. See: http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/788.

Several of Arthur C. Clarke stories have ancient alien visitations as a back ground. Most famous are the 1951 short story "The Sentinel" and the 1968 novel and movie "2001: A Space Odyssey". See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sentinel_(short_story).

I hope to soon add my story "Felix" to this list.

Scientific Study

In the past, some scientists have taken the idea seriously. Most notable was Carl Sagan, who published papers on the subject in the early 1960s and later was involved with the SETI project. Since pseudoscience has taken over the ancient astronaut hypothesis, few scientists will take a serious look at the possibility. If you know of a serious scientific study of this, please let me know.

I remain intrigued by the idea of alien visitations in the past. For now it seems that it can only be explored in fiction. Some day some thing may show up to validate the hypothesis, but it does seem that not even the advocates have made any serious attempts to find that evidence.

I would like to explore this idea more in my stories and movies.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

The Dunning–Kruger Effect Gets My Goat

Much of the humour in the comic strip "Dilbert" is based on one of the characters demonstrating ignorance without being aware of their ignorance. This behaviour has a name, The Dunning–Kruger Effect, and in real life it makes my blood boil.

What is The Dunning–Kruger Effect?

"... ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" - Charles Darwin

The Dunning–Kruger Effect is what is known as a cognitive bias. A cognitive bias is where our minds take a short cut which results in an illogical decision. Wikipedia lists 167 different cognitive biases. 

The Dunning–Kruger Effect states that when people who lack knowledge or skill in an area, they tend to be over confident in their abilities, don't recognize real ability in other people and are unaware of their lack of knowledge.

"If you’re incompetent, you can’t know you’re incompetent. […] the skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is. - David Dunning

Dunning and Kruger say that education and training can correct this bias in people.

The Other Side of The Dunning–Kruger Effect

As the Charles Darwin quote above suggests, people who are skilled and knowledgeable, tend to be less confident. In my case I find that the more I know about a topic, the more aware I become of how things can go wrong. I come to believe that there are important aspects of the topic that I am still unaware of. This knowledge and belief make it hard for me to act with confidence.

Nate Silver's "prediction paradox" supports this view. He points out that less confident someone is in their prediction, the more likely they are to be right. Unfortunately, most people will trust some who appears confident over someone who is not.

Why The Dunning–Kruger Effect Gets Me Angry

Several times over my life I have gone through some very unpleasant experiences where The Dunning–Kruger Effect played a big role. These were situations where I was knowledgeable about an issue to a much greater degree than others who then ignored my opinions, which lead to bad decisions. Bad decisions that I then had to try to work around.

These situations often created a great deal of anger within myself. I was angry at the less knowledgeable people because they didn't take my opinions seriously. In my mind I would scream, "Why can't you see that you fool!" That isn't a diplomatically effective way to talk and I was usually able to keep my mouth shut. I suspect they got the message anyway.

Part of my anger was with myself, but, as with others, my behaviour reflected my own cognitive biases.

• Since I was aware of the danger that I might be the one who suffered from The Dunning–Kruger Effect, I was hesitant to speak out forcefully, since it could be me that was in the wrong. When I did speak out, I came across as tentative and unsure. That made it easy for others to ignore or discount my opinions.

• I also suffered from The Curse of Knowledge. That is a cognitive bias where you assume that if you know something, then others know it as well. In retrospect I realized that because I assumed too much about the other's level of knowledge before I talked to them, I wasn't in a position to explain the knowledge effectively when I became aware of their ignorance.

People will develop their positions quickly after they begin to consider an issue and then stick to it. If you are to have a real effect on their views, it is important to convey information before they have begun to form their opinion.

How Can I Use The Dunning–Kruger Effect In A Story?

In my better films, like "Line of Taxis", I have taken emotions I have experienced and placed them in a different context. I have never done this consciously with the anger I felt because of The Dunning–Kruger Effect. Maybe my feelings are still too raw to use.

I think that The Dunning–Kruger Effect and other cognitive biases can provide a basis for more complex character and motivations. They allow a way for a "bad guy" to behave badly, when they are not really a bad person; just flawed in their thinking.

Off hand, I don't see cognitive biases as a basis for a story, but they can certainly add complexity to a conflict situation.

In "The Barrier" I can see some aspects of The Dunning–Kruger Effect. Both the protagonist, Arthur Macdonald, and his boss, Brandon Baker, struggle against it. Since I didn't try to include it deliberately, I didn't develop it fully. When it comes time to revise the movie, there may be some opportunity to exploit cognitive biases much more.

For More Information

If you want to know more about The Dunning–Kruger Effect and cognitive bias, Wikipedia has several articles you can read.

·         http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

·         http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias

·         http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

·         http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curse_of_knowledge

You can watch the movies I mention in this blog on these pages:

·         "The Barrier" - http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/the-barrier/

·         "Line of Taxis" - http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/filmlist/line-of-taxis

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

A Virtual Parliament

picture source: 

W. Lloyd MacKenzie, via Flickr @

http://www.flickr.com/photos/saffron_blaze/

Lately, while procrastinating about "Felix", I've thought about some old ideas that I could use to create new stories. One of these is what I call Virtual Parliament, where electronic communication is used to change the way parliament works.

One of the problems with governing a large country like Canada, is that  members of parliament and senators spent much of their time in Ottawa and away from the people they represent. This creates a barrier between government and the people.

My idea was that this problem could be addressed if we could create a Virtual Parliament. The technology of the internet could be used to replace the need for parliament to travel to Ottawa to meet. MPs and Senators could live in the constituencies they represent, while they continued to have their parliamentary sessions on-line.

There are pros and cons to this solution, and since my objective is to develop new stories, it is the cons that would provide the conflict needed for a story. I'll start with some of the pros.

• A Virtual Parliament would allow politicians to better develop and maintain their relationships with the people they represent. This would give politicians a better sense of what people wanted.

• A Virtual Parliament would improve the quality of debate. Debates would not need to be conducted in real time. This would allow politicians more of an opportunity to study and review discussions before they asked questions or voted.

• A Virtual Parliament would create a more transparent environment where people could watch their representatives more closely.

While my initial idea was a kind of a utopian vision of politics, I suspect that there could be some real drawbacks to this approach.

• A Virtual Parliament would reduce informal contact between members of Parliament. When people rarely meet face to face, formal contacts can lead to conflicts that make it more difficult for politicians to work out the compromises needed for effective government. It is much easier for misunderstandings to arise from communication over the internet.  Anyone who has followed on-line discussions has seen how badly it can turn out.

• A Virtual Parliament would create a conflict between a politician's desire to serve their constituents and their desire to maintain political connections. Some will see this as a benefit rather than a problem, but it can also make it more difficult for the politician to be effective.

• A Virtual Parliament would undermine the importance of political parties. Again, some people will see this as a benefit. However, without political parties, parliament could become much more volatile, which again could undermine its effectiveness.

I don't think these problems are that serious. To be successful, politicians need strong communications skills and the ability to exercise extreme diplomacy when they deal with people they disagree with or even despise. These skills should allow them to avoid or deal with the problems of communication in a Virtual Parliament.

In my case, I want to see conflicts that could be the basis for stories. It is the pit falls of communication that provide the greatest opportunity for conflict and it is the communication skills of politicians that are the tools they need to resolve the conflicts.

This all sounds very idealistic to me, which makes me wonder if it might not be a good option for story telling. Also, my personal experiences have not given me a real understanding of the communication skills of politicians, which would make it harder for me to write a realistic story.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

Some More Experiments for "The Barrier"

Xtranormal State will be rereleased, but it isn't clear just when that will happen, and what will be available. In the mean time I will do some experiments with StatePlus on some changes I want to make to "The Barrier".

There are several changes I want to make to "The Barrier" that I wanted to try out.

For example, I want to replace some or all of the synthetic voices with real voices. I tried that out with my own voice and it looks like it isn't problem technically. I do need some people with better voices than I have though. I'll need money to pay them too.

This week I focussed on changes to the opening scene. In it, my protagonist drives along a road and then narrowly avoids a collision with a big truck. In the version I used for the current version of the movie, I just have a close up of his face and appropriate sound effects. From the responses I've had, this doesn't make the situation clear to many people.

The kind of action I want for the scene really can't be done directly in State or StatePlus. There isn't a set that is appropriate and there isn't a big truck. They do have a car though and I think I can work around the limitations to get what I want.

My plan is to create the appropriate set in Blender, like I did with the open house scene where I created a small gymnasium. I would need to create a big truck in Blender as well. I plan to work on those changes in Blender later.

If I want to incorporate the car and my character from State/StatePlus I will need to modify the set with the car so that it has a green screen background. I played around with that this week.

The set for the car is a bit tricky to alter to create the green background. Some of the elements of the set are actually props rather than parts of the set, so I needed to find those props and change them as well.

I still have bits and pieces of the set that are not green, so I still have some detective work to do. However, I may be able to get the shots I want with what I have now.

The next thing I need to do for this scene is to create the set in Blender, then I can start to match up the car and the set.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

Writer's Block and "Felix"

As I continue to struggle with writer's block, I ask myself, why do I want to write "Felix"? Maybe that will get me restarted.

On one level  a story can be just a story; an exercise in entertainment. But to write a story a writer needs motivation. What is my motivation? In general I see any creative activity as a way for the creator to express their personal philosophy. When I look at the stories and movies I've done, they all reflect ideas or emotions that were important to me. That is even true of projects where I didn't consciously set out to make a point.

What about "Felix"?

My initial inspiration for "Felix" was a desire to rewrite one of H. P. Lovecraft's short stories. At the time I started, I didn't give any thought to what I wanted to say in the story. I believe that if I want to finish this story and make it worth reading, then I need to clarify in my mind what I want the story about.

In many of Lovecraft's stories he tries to evoke a sense that people are just a small and insignificant part of the Universe. His protagonists are horrified by that revelation. It is not that the other beings are evil, but that they simply don't care about humanity.

At the end of "Felix" I have a similar revelation. As I said in an earlier blog post, it is very difficult to hide the climax to a story like this. Since there can be no surprise ending to the story, my focus needs to be on how my protagonists react to the revelation. In the current version of the story I have the two protagonists react in different ways.

The story up until the climax needs to build up the reader's empathy for the protagonists. I need to develop the characters to the point where, while their reactions may be unexpected, the reader can understand why the characters react the way they do.

What I want the reader to think about while they read is how the characters might react to the revelation. Then, after they have read the story, I want them to go on to speculate how they would react in their place. I do want to provoke an emotional response, but I don't believe I would call it fear.

I would like reader to find what I seek; an acceptance of the Universe as it is. So often we get caught up in the travails and frustrations of our day to day existence. I believe that it is easier to find happiness and enjoy life if we see our troubles as not that important in the whole scheme of things.

This seems like a mighty ambitious goal for a little story like mine. I find it rather intimidating to think of it in those terms, which doesn't help much with my writer's block. On the other hand, just because I might not succeed is no reason not to try. A failed attempt may still be worth the effort.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

Transportation Planning and "Bad" Teachers

Conflict is an important part of story telling. Fortunately for the writer, there is no shortage of conflict to draw from. Recent reports about plans to evaluate teachers illustrates one of the conflicts I had in my work in transportation planning.

Conflict in Transportation Planning

For much of my career in Transportation Planning I advocated a program to monitor and adjust the transportation plan. This is the application of the scientific method to planning. I would likened it to keeping your eyes open when you drive your car.

I strongly believe in the value of monitoring, but because it is so often misunderstood and misused it is very difficult to implement

In the last few years before I retired, I was assigned to develop a monitoring program. I ran into a lot of resistance. Partly it may have been my style that generated resistance, but then many others have faced the same resistance.

My rationale for a monitoring program was that there were too many unknowns that could not be accounted for in advance. The world does not always unfold as we expect. Sometimes population growth is slower, some times faster. A transportation solution that worked well in other cities may not work well in yours. Changes in fuel costs and transportation technology can have a profound impact on how successful a plan is.

When you develop a plan, it isn't reasonable to account for events that are unlikely to happen. But, there are so many possible events that are unlikely, it is likely that some will happen. We just can't know which ones.

Why, if there is so much uncertainty about the future, would any rational person resist a monitoring program?

I think the main reason is the misapplication of such programs by managers and political leaders who fail to understand how these programs actually work. They see it as a way to put the blame for bad outcomes on someone else. Naturally, anyone who works on transportation planning will see such programs as a personal attack on them.

It was never my intention to approach monitoring in this way, but many people reacted as if it was. The history of misuse undermines any attempt to apply the proper application of the method.

Where I Come From on This

As I noted above, "monitoring" is the application of the scientific method to transportation planning. Although I was an advocate since early in my career, it wasn't until I read W. Edwards Deming's book "Out of the Crisis" that I was able to understand what was involved.

Deming's ideas are not easy to learn. It took me six months to read the book, and even longer to absorb a superficial understanding of his methods. I fear that even a very intelligent person who has only a rudimentary understanding of probability and statistics will not be able to understand. It is no wonder that his ideas are so often misused.

The purpose of Deming's method is to understand what factors affect the outcome, and then address the areas most likely to make a difference. Deming says that it is the system that is the biggest factor and the individuals are constrained by the system. To blame the individuals for poor outcomes is to divert efforts from the changes that need to made to the system.

Getting Rid of Bad Teachers

Earlier this month The Alberta Government released a report that advocated more stringent testing of teachers. (source:  http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Teachers+union+leader+calls+report+offensive/9810740/story.html). In it I see the same problems I saw in my work on transportation planning. The focus is on "the teachers" as the problem, and the goal is to get rid of "bad teachers". That might not be their real intent, but it is certainly how most people would interpret the report.

As with transportation planning, this is the wrong focus and will only divert attention from more productive actions. A recent report in the U.S. by the American Statistical Association (ASA) reported that only 1% to 14% of the variability in how successful students were was due to teachers. (source: http://www.amstat.org/policy/pdfs/ASA_VAM_Statement.pdf).

This statement needs some clarification. Teachers do have a major impact on students, but what the ASA talks about is the variation. It may be easier to see this as a measure of the difference between good teachers and bad teachers. What this suggests is that even if extreme measures are used to replace all the "bad teachers", the effect on student success would be small. It may even make the problems worse.

There are other factors that are more important and these need to be the focus. A report from the American Education Research Association and the National Academy of Education provides more information on other factors. (see: https://edpolicy.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/getting-teacher-evaluation-right-challenge-policy-makers.pdf)

Sadly, it looks like many more years will be wasted while administrators try to fix the wrong problem.

Where Can This Conflict be Used in a Story

A major goal of this blog is to explore ideas for my stories and movies, so I want to consider the conflicts above as the basis for future stories. I do see this conflict as important, but I can also see that the complexity of the issue would make it difficult to express in story form. Long discussions would be needed to properly explain the conflict. Unfortunately, long discussions would quickly drive away the audience.

When I made my movie "Line of Taxis" I decided to draw on the emotions I felt from a particular situation, but used none of the details of the actual situation. Partly that was to create some distance to allow me to express what I felt, but it also put the focus on the human and emotional issues. I think this helped make "Line of Taxis" a success. As Gene Roddenberry said, "What people are most interested in is other people."

Maybe I can do something similar with this issue. The essence of the conflict is a misunderstanding where the protagonist has a benign goal, but the antagonist sees it as a threat to them. The challenge would be about how to bridge that gap and remove the misunderstanding, and do it in a way that is entertaining. Since I wasn't able to do that in the real world, I'm not sure how I could do it in a fictional world.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog