Should I create my own conspiracy Theory? The Other Earth Conspiracy.

I've had an interest in conspiracy theories for a long time, even though I am very sceptical about them in general. I've been tempted to create my own conspiracy theory for fun and profit. I've hesitated to do that because I was afraid that people might take it seriously.

Years ago I got interested in the Kennedy assassination conspiracy theories. At first I kept an open mind, but, as I learned more about the theories, I began to think they were just too implausible to be true. My thoughts on the conspiracy theory led me to make my movie "Who Shot the President". http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/filmlist/who-shot-the-president/

"Who Shot the President" resulted in more threats than money, but more people have watched that than any of my other movies. I didn't like the threats, but I could see that there was a great deal of interest in the topic. Like any other filmmaker, I do want to find an audience and there is clearly one that looks for conspiracy theories.

In the past I hesitated to pursue conspiracy theories in my movies for a couple of reasons.

First, I don't want to trick people to get them to watch my movies. To me, that seems very dishonest. If I take that route I would feel I have abandoned the reasons that I wanted to make movies in the first place. It wasn't just to make money, although that would be nice. I wanted to say something of value.

Second, I worry that some people might take my conspiracy theory seriously. Even some very outrageous conspiracy theories have their adherents. Even if presented as broad satire, some people will still want to believe.

Despite these concerns I've developed a fake conspiracy theory.

The Other Earth Conspiracy

A conspiracy needs a good name, to catch people's attention. The theory is about NASA, but I can't call it the NASA Conspiracy, because there are already plenty of conspiracies about NASA. For now I'll call it The Other Earth Conspiracy. That sounds lame to me, but maybe I can come up with a better name later.

The theory is based on some strange behaviours on the part of NASA. I've listed those below.

1. NASA has begun to search for other earths

NASA has for the last 20 or so years supported the research of astronomers in their search for extra solar planets. They have a website devoted to this work:

"Planet Quest - The Search for Another Earth" at http://planetquest.jpl.nasa.gov/

While the stated reason for this research is scientific curiosity, the question that comes to mind is, "What is the big rush?" After all, it may be millennia before we could ever actually visit them.

2. NASA has developed plans for a warp drive space ship

Most of us of heard of warp drive from the "Star Trek" TV programs and movies. They use warp drive as a plot device to get the characters from one solar system to another quickly so the crew can have a new adventure every week.

The idea seems like a pretty far out science fiction invention. However, NASA has designed a space ship that uses warp drive. See: "NASA Reveals Latest Warp-Drive Ship Designs" at http://www.iflscience.com/space/nasa-reveals-latest-warp-drive-ship-designs

As with the search for another earth, we have to ask the question, "What is the big rush?" So far as we know, no one has even demonstrated that warp drive is even possible.

3. NASA has wasted a lot of money

In recent years it seems like every one criticises NASA for inefficiency, mismanagement, and waste. Here are a few samples:

·         GAO: True Cost of SLS, Orion Unclear http://www.spacenews.com/article/civil-space/40610gao-true-cost-of-sls-orion-unclear

·         More Wasteful EPO Spending at NASA http://nasawatch.com/archives/2014/01/more-wasteful-e.html

·         NASA: James Webb Space Telescope to Now Cost $8.7 Billion http://www.space.com/12759-james-webb-space-telescope-nasa-cost-increase.html

·         $4 billion over budget, four years past schedule: Meet Northrop's problem program http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/blog/fedbiz_daily/2014/04/4-billion-over-budget-four-years-past-schedule.html?page=all

What is odd, is that NASA used to have a very good reputation. Remember, who else besides NASA has promised the Moon and delivered?

What happened to NASA? Now it seems like they can't even do anything without massive cost over runs. Can that really be true?

One begins to wonder, "Are these projects really that badly run?" Could it be that these projects are just a front? Could it be that the money is actually spent on other, secret, projects?

4. NASA is a leader in the study of global warming

One of NASA's activities is the study of Earth's climate. See: http://climate.nasa.gov/. Many people have expressed scepticism about global warming, and say NASA exaggerates the danger.

But a recent study paints a very different picture. The authors of "Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?" found that scientists have tended to under estimate and under play the effects of global warming. For example the shrinkage of the Arctic polar icecap has been much greater than even the worst case scenario.

The original article can be found at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378012001215, but since it is behind a pay wall, you can read about some of the results at: http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-scientists-esld.html.

The question that comes to mind is, "Why does NASA want to downplay the threat of global warming?" Are they just too cautious, or could there be a more frightening explanation?

What are we to make of all of this? Possibly they are nothing but a collection of unrelated facts. But, they might also point to a conspiracy. There are a lot of unanswered questions about NASA is up to.

• Could it be that they have discovered that human life on Earth is doomed?
• Could it be that they have abandoned any hope they can stop the inevitable?
• Could it be that they have planned an escape for the elite and themselves?
• Could it be that they have started to build the warp drive space ship to escape?
• Could it be that they have started to look for another planet to escape to?
• Could it be that they have diverted money to pay for the escape?
• Could it be that they have down played the danger of global warming to keep the general population in the dark until it is too late?

This all seems too far fetched to be real. But who knows? Maybe, somewhere far out in space, a new earth orbits around a dim star in our sky, and around that new earth, astronauts from our old Earth have already looked down on their new home.

Warning: This is just an exercise in speculation and I don't believe that any of it is true. Please don't take it seriously.

I realize that this conspiracy theory is similar to "Alternative 3". See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_3

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

"Felix" and The Ancient Astronauts

The Red One

They say that reading is part of writing, so I think I can count some of my recent reading as work on "Felix". I've read a bunch of stuff about Lovecraft and ancient astronauts recently, which is something touched on in my story.

Pseudoscience

When I first learnt of Erich von Däniken’s "Chariots of the Gods", I was immediately convinced of it's veracity. However, as I read more, all of the claims disappeared in a puff of smoke. This lead to my interest in scepticism.

I have long since stopped reading the work of the people who perpetuate von Däniken’s ideas. These proponents haven't come up with any convincing evidence for their hypothesis. Nonetheless, I am still fascinated with the idea. In part, it is because the idea is, to me, plausible.

Recently I started to follow Jason Colavito blog about ancient astronauts and pseudo archaeology. See: http://www.jasoncolavito.com/blog. He takes a sceptical stance and investigates claims in some detail. One his major claims is that people who make claims about ancient astronauts were inspired by the stories of H. P. Lovecraft. He published the book "The Cult of Alien Gods" about his ideas. See: http://www.jasoncolavito.com/cult-of-alien-gods.html.

Jason Colavito links to Michael S. Heiser blogs. See: http://drmsh.com/ and http://michaelsheiser.com/PaleoBabble/. Heiser has debunked some ancient astronaut claims.

One of the disturbing aspects of many the ancient astronaut claims is their inherent racism. Although it doesn't often appear overtly, many of the arguments used boil down to "those people" were not capable of building something so impressive. Lovecraft often expressed racist views, which many of his modern day fans are uncomfortable with.

Science Fiction

Over the years I've come across many stories and movies that invoke the possibility of extraterrestrial visitors to Earth in the distant past. As noted above, H. P. Lovecraft's Cthulhu Mythos stories involve extraterrestrial visitors who have influenced history. He wrote most of these stories between 1926 and 1936.

Recently I came across an earlier story, Jack London's "The Red One", which was published in 1918. It concerns a man who finds an alien artefact deep in the interior of Guadalcanal. The descriptions of the natives in the story are quite racist, although it isn't clear to me if this reflects London's views or those of the character in the story. The story is available from Project Gutenberg. See: http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/788.

Several of Arthur C. Clarke stories have ancient alien visitations as a back ground. Most famous are the 1951 short story "The Sentinel" and the 1968 novel and movie "2001: A Space Odyssey". See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sentinel_(short_story).

I hope to soon add my story "Felix" to this list.

Scientific Study

In the past, some scientists have taken the idea seriously. Most notable was Carl Sagan, who published papers on the subject in the early 1960s and later was involved with the SETI project. Since pseudoscience has taken over the ancient astronaut hypothesis, few scientists will take a serious look at the possibility. If you know of a serious scientific study of this, please let me know.

I remain intrigued by the idea of alien visitations in the past. For now it seems that it can only be explored in fiction. Some day some thing may show up to validate the hypothesis, but it does seem that not even the advocates have made any serious attempts to find that evidence.

I would like to explore this idea more in my stories and movies.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

The Dunning–Kruger Effect Gets My Goat

Much of the humour in the comic strip "Dilbert" is based on one of the characters demonstrating ignorance without being aware of their ignorance. This behaviour has a name, The Dunning–Kruger Effect, and in real life it makes my blood boil.

What is The Dunning–Kruger Effect?

"... ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" - Charles Darwin

The Dunning–Kruger Effect is what is known as a cognitive bias. A cognitive bias is where our minds take a short cut which results in an illogical decision. Wikipedia lists 167 different cognitive biases. 

The Dunning–Kruger Effect states that when people who lack knowledge or skill in an area, they tend to be over confident in their abilities, don't recognize real ability in other people and are unaware of their lack of knowledge.

"If you’re incompetent, you can’t know you’re incompetent. […] the skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is. - David Dunning

Dunning and Kruger say that education and training can correct this bias in people.

The Other Side of The Dunning–Kruger Effect

As the Charles Darwin quote above suggests, people who are skilled and knowledgeable, tend to be less confident. In my case I find that the more I know about a topic, the more aware I become of how things can go wrong. I come to believe that there are important aspects of the topic that I am still unaware of. This knowledge and belief make it hard for me to act with confidence.

Nate Silver's "prediction paradox" supports this view. He points out that less confident someone is in their prediction, the more likely they are to be right. Unfortunately, most people will trust some who appears confident over someone who is not.

Why The Dunning–Kruger Effect Gets Me Angry

Several times over my life I have gone through some very unpleasant experiences where The Dunning–Kruger Effect played a big role. These were situations where I was knowledgeable about an issue to a much greater degree than others who then ignored my opinions, which lead to bad decisions. Bad decisions that I then had to try to work around.

These situations often created a great deal of anger within myself. I was angry at the less knowledgeable people because they didn't take my opinions seriously. In my mind I would scream, "Why can't you see that you fool!" That isn't a diplomatically effective way to talk and I was usually able to keep my mouth shut. I suspect they got the message anyway.

Part of my anger was with myself, but, as with others, my behaviour reflected my own cognitive biases.

• Since I was aware of the danger that I might be the one who suffered from The Dunning–Kruger Effect, I was hesitant to speak out forcefully, since it could be me that was in the wrong. When I did speak out, I came across as tentative and unsure. That made it easy for others to ignore or discount my opinions.

• I also suffered from The Curse of Knowledge. That is a cognitive bias where you assume that if you know something, then others know it as well. In retrospect I realized that because I assumed too much about the other's level of knowledge before I talked to them, I wasn't in a position to explain the knowledge effectively when I became aware of their ignorance.

People will develop their positions quickly after they begin to consider an issue and then stick to it. If you are to have a real effect on their views, it is important to convey information before they have begun to form their opinion.

How Can I Use The Dunning–Kruger Effect In A Story?

In my better films, like "Line of Taxis", I have taken emotions I have experienced and placed them in a different context. I have never done this consciously with the anger I felt because of The Dunning–Kruger Effect. Maybe my feelings are still too raw to use.

I think that The Dunning–Kruger Effect and other cognitive biases can provide a basis for more complex character and motivations. They allow a way for a "bad guy" to behave badly, when they are not really a bad person; just flawed in their thinking.

Off hand, I don't see cognitive biases as a basis for a story, but they can certainly add complexity to a conflict situation.

In "The Barrier" I can see some aspects of The Dunning–Kruger Effect. Both the protagonist, Arthur Macdonald, and his boss, Brandon Baker, struggle against it. Since I didn't try to include it deliberately, I didn't develop it fully. When it comes time to revise the movie, there may be some opportunity to exploit cognitive biases much more.

For More Information

If you want to know more about The Dunning–Kruger Effect and cognitive bias, Wikipedia has several articles you can read.

·         http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

·         http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias

·         http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

·         http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curse_of_knowledge

You can watch the movies I mention in this blog on these pages:

·         "The Barrier" - http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/the-barrier/

·         "Line of Taxis" - http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/filmlist/line-of-taxis

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

A Virtual Parliament

picture source: 

W. Lloyd MacKenzie, via Flickr @

http://www.flickr.com/photos/saffron_blaze/

Lately, while procrastinating about "Felix", I've thought about some old ideas that I could use to create new stories. One of these is what I call Virtual Parliament, where electronic communication is used to change the way parliament works.

One of the problems with governing a large country like Canada, is that  members of parliament and senators spent much of their time in Ottawa and away from the people they represent. This creates a barrier between government and the people.

My idea was that this problem could be addressed if we could create a Virtual Parliament. The technology of the internet could be used to replace the need for parliament to travel to Ottawa to meet. MPs and Senators could live in the constituencies they represent, while they continued to have their parliamentary sessions on-line.

There are pros and cons to this solution, and since my objective is to develop new stories, it is the cons that would provide the conflict needed for a story. I'll start with some of the pros.

• A Virtual Parliament would allow politicians to better develop and maintain their relationships with the people they represent. This would give politicians a better sense of what people wanted.

• A Virtual Parliament would improve the quality of debate. Debates would not need to be conducted in real time. This would allow politicians more of an opportunity to study and review discussions before they asked questions or voted.

• A Virtual Parliament would create a more transparent environment where people could watch their representatives more closely.

While my initial idea was a kind of a utopian vision of politics, I suspect that there could be some real drawbacks to this approach.

• A Virtual Parliament would reduce informal contact between members of Parliament. When people rarely meet face to face, formal contacts can lead to conflicts that make it more difficult for politicians to work out the compromises needed for effective government. It is much easier for misunderstandings to arise from communication over the internet.  Anyone who has followed on-line discussions has seen how badly it can turn out.

• A Virtual Parliament would create a conflict between a politician's desire to serve their constituents and their desire to maintain political connections. Some will see this as a benefit rather than a problem, but it can also make it more difficult for the politician to be effective.

• A Virtual Parliament would undermine the importance of political parties. Again, some people will see this as a benefit. However, without political parties, parliament could become much more volatile, which again could undermine its effectiveness.

I don't think these problems are that serious. To be successful, politicians need strong communications skills and the ability to exercise extreme diplomacy when they deal with people they disagree with or even despise. These skills should allow them to avoid or deal with the problems of communication in a Virtual Parliament.

In my case, I want to see conflicts that could be the basis for stories. It is the pit falls of communication that provide the greatest opportunity for conflict and it is the communication skills of politicians that are the tools they need to resolve the conflicts.

This all sounds very idealistic to me, which makes me wonder if it might not be a good option for story telling. Also, my personal experiences have not given me a real understanding of the communication skills of politicians, which would make it harder for me to write a realistic story.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

Some More Experiments for "The Barrier"

Xtranormal State will be rereleased, but it isn't clear just when that will happen, and what will be available. In the mean time I will do some experiments with StatePlus on some changes I want to make to "The Barrier".

There are several changes I want to make to "The Barrier" that I wanted to try out.

For example, I want to replace some or all of the synthetic voices with real voices. I tried that out with my own voice and it looks like it isn't problem technically. I do need some people with better voices than I have though. I'll need money to pay them too.

This week I focussed on changes to the opening scene. In it, my protagonist drives along a road and then narrowly avoids a collision with a big truck. In the version I used for the current version of the movie, I just have a close up of his face and appropriate sound effects. From the responses I've had, this doesn't make the situation clear to many people.

The kind of action I want for the scene really can't be done directly in State or StatePlus. There isn't a set that is appropriate and there isn't a big truck. They do have a car though and I think I can work around the limitations to get what I want.

My plan is to create the appropriate set in Blender, like I did with the open house scene where I created a small gymnasium. I would need to create a big truck in Blender as well. I plan to work on those changes in Blender later.

If I want to incorporate the car and my character from State/StatePlus I will need to modify the set with the car so that it has a green screen background. I played around with that this week.

The set for the car is a bit tricky to alter to create the green background. Some of the elements of the set are actually props rather than parts of the set, so I needed to find those props and change them as well.

I still have bits and pieces of the set that are not green, so I still have some detective work to do. However, I may be able to get the shots I want with what I have now.

The next thing I need to do for this scene is to create the set in Blender, then I can start to match up the car and the set.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog