Tests Shots for A New Scene in "The Barrier"

For the next version of my transportation planner movie, "The Barrier", I want to add a scene where Arthur makes video of the place where he wants to put the barrier.

I had wanted to do this for the original movie, but thought it would be too difficult. I decided to use Blender to create the scene. I made good progress this week, and have some test shots to share. Later I will use Nawmal to add Arthur to the scene.

You can watch the test shots here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oitpW0NeYg

I would like to come up with a better looking SUV than I created for the video.

You can watch previous version of "The Barrier" (version 0.6) here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATcKnFAwlU0

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

There Are Two Types of Money; I Think

For a while now, I've mused about how it might help to understand money if we think there are two different kinds of money. I think that other people might see some value in this idea.

In a nutshell, the idea is that there are two very different ways in which people use and think about money. I suspect this idea could help us gain insight into some of the economic problems we struggle with.

So What Do I Know

Someone once said that everyone has the right to opinion, but no right to be taken seriously. Should you take my ideas seriously?

I am not an economist. I did take a few courses back in University, and I have had an ongoing interest in the field. All the same, I can't claim to have much expertise in economics. Economists may well have discussed and discarded these ideas long ago and I just don't know about it.

However;

For most of my career I created and used transportation planning models. These are similar in some ways to economic models. As a result of my work, I've had to make a big effort to understand the behaviour of complex dynamic systems. The economy is certainly complex and dynamic. It is from this angle I've approached these ideas.

Get Rich Literature

I never had a real drive to get rich, and have been successful in not becoming rich. However, I did read some books and articles about how to become rich. What I learned is that rich people and the rest of us look at money in very different ways.

The non rich, for the most part, see money as what they need to live their life. Money is for food, clothes and a place to live. Most of us do save money for use later, but it is still meant as a means to buy the things we need to live later in our lives.

Not being rich, I find it difficult to explain exactly how the rich see money differently. From what I can tell, the rich see money as an end in itself. When you have large amounts of money, you have power and influence. While rich people do spend more money on food, clothes and a place to live, they don't see that as the main purpose of money.

A Brief Aside About Money and The Economy

The flow of money is key for a successful economy. It is not so much how much money there is, but how it moves through the economy that determines the strength of the economy. The same dollar can be re-spent hundreds of times over the course of a year.

A Simple Model of the Economy

In the chart below I've tried to show a simplified view of how the economy works to help explain what the two types of money are. I left out some important aspects of the economy because I did not think they were needed and might just confuse the issue.

In this view, I have two classes of people, owners and workers. Of course many people are both. I want to keep things simple, so I will treat them as if they are separate.

Owners invest in the economy, then gain profits and increases in the value of the property they own. Workers contribute their work to the economy and receive wages in return. The workers then spend the money they've earned on the products the economy has produced.

Owners also purchase products for their own use, but it is small compared to what workers spend and often small compared to what they gain in profit and asset value. I decided to ignore this spending.

In summary, investment and spending go into the economy, and wages and profits come out. How much workers can spend is dependent on how much they receive in wages. How much owners can invest is dependent on how much they receive in profits.

How to Have a Healthy Economy

We want to have an economy that works best for everyone. How money is split between wages and profits has an important effect on the health of the economy and the equity between rich and poor.

An extreme example will help explain this. If all the money went into profit and none went to wages, then workers would have no money to spend. If no money comes in from spending, the economy will collapse. Something similar would happen if all the money went to wages and none went to profits. Somewhere between these two extremes the economy will be stable.

There must, therefore, be an ideal split between profits and wages that produces the best economy. Send too much money to wages or send too much money to profit and everyone is worse off.

The important question is therefore: how do we get the split between wages and profits to match the ideal?

Thought Experiment: Two Currencies

I see two different types of money. Profits and investments are one kind of money. Wages and spending are a second kind of money.

For our thought experiment, assume that we have different currencies for the two types of money. We further assume that there is a floating exchange rate between the two currencies. We will call the profit and investment money dollars, and the wages and spending money donuts.

Would this arrangement help keep the split between the two types of money close to the ideal? I'd bet dollars to donuts that it would. ;)

If too much money goes to profits, this will cause dollars to have a higher inflation rate than donuts. This would push up the value of donuts relative to dollars. The effect would be to move the split between profits and wages back towards the ideal.

Similarly, if too much money went to wages, it would cause donuts to have  higher inflation rate than dollars. This would push up the value of dollars relative to donuts. Again, this would move the split between profits and wages back towards the ideal.

I don't see how this could be put into practice. It would be a very disruptive and difficult transition. However, I believe that it is a useful way to look at the issue.

Flaws in the Theory

No doubt, with the simplicity of my analysis, important factors that could affect this idea could be missed. Please let me know of any you may notice.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

Traffic Simulation Replacement for "The Barrier"

There is scene in "The Barrier" where two characters watch a traffic simulation. I wasn't happy with the quality of the animation I did for the simulation, so this week I created a replacement for the next version of "The Barrier".

When I did the previous version of "The Barrier" I used MS PowerPoint to create the animation of the traffic simulation. At the time I didn't know to use any other software I could use to do the animation. I did consider asking some people I knew to do a video with a real traffic simulation program, but decided against that.

For the new animation I used Blender. I used Blender for some images for "The Barrier" and later to do the new opening scene of the current version of "The Barrier". I used the Blender file I created for that scene as a basis for the new animation.

I posted a comparison between the new and the old animations on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELFPtgbhc-k

The video I want to replace is at about the 36 minute mark of the current version of "The Barrier". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATcKnFAwlU0

In my original plan for "The Barrier" I wanted to include a scene where Arthur shoots a video of the road where he wants to build the barrier. I dropped that idea because I didn't have the ability to make it work. With the experience I have with Blender now, I think I can put together a decent scene.

I made more changes for the revised script for "The Barrier". The parts I'm working on now have more drastic changes, so I think I will need to go back later and tune them up.

I think I'm getting closer to the point where it makes sense to get a license to use Nawmal. At least to update the STATE files with the changes I want to make.

I still won't be ready to record new voices for the movie though. I haven't decided how to handle that piece of work yet. Useful advice would be kindly accepted.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

"The Barrier": How Specific Do I Need to be About the Transportation Model?

In my initial version of "The Barrier" I was kind of skimpy on the details of the issues with the transportation model. With the rewrite, I felt I needed to make that more detailed.

I revised 4 more scenes this week. I've done 14 of the 39 scenes I plan to rewrite. Most of the remaining scenes have only minor changes, but there are four scenes that need major rewrites. In those scenes I had the characters talk in vague generalities about the issues that come up about the transportation model. I started to work on those specifics this week.

I've run into some barriers of my own.

Hazy Memory

It's been 13 years since I last worked in transportation forecasting, and 7 years since I actively kept up with developments in the field. My memory has faded somewhat over those years. Transportation models have thousands of details that can become controversial. I struggled to remember a handful of major issues. I'm sure that as I think about it more, some more will come to mind.

Dated Knowledge

Since I haven't kept up on new developments, the criticisms of transportation models may well have changed. Around the time I left the field, new types of models were being introduced that were supposed to address some of the major criticisms of existing transportation models.

It may well be that some of the issues I want to use in the movie are no longer relevant. No doubt there would be some criticism of  the newer models, but I wouldn't know what they would be. I'm not keen to do a lot of research to update my self. Maybe someone can give me some suggestions I can use.

I do remember one criticism of the newer models was how much more time and effort they took to run. That isn't an issue I can use in my movie. Another was the perennial complaint about models that they were black boxes that nobody understood. I already use this in the movie. I even call the model software "BlackBox by VooDoo".

What I don't believe has changed is that forecasting models are still the weak link in the planning process. Knowledgeable people who want to question transportation plans will go after the forecasts. You can see the same pattern in the climate change debate.

Avoid Confusion

I worry that if I get too specific about the transportation model, people without some background in the field will get confused. On the other hand, the vague descriptions I used in the last version of "The Barrier" confused people anyway. I need to strike a balance where most viewers can follow what is happening.

The issues with the model are what Alfred Hitchcock used to call a McGuffin. It's what the characters in the movie think is important, but it isn't important to the story or the audience.

Options

My first inclination is to use the jargon that transportation planners would use. The problem with that approach is that then I would have to explain what the term means. I've done that in a few places already. I had the developer play dumb to force the engineers to explain what they meant.

In the scenes I need to revise, the characters should know what they talking about, which eliminates any excuse for characters to explain. The approach I have in mind is to have the characters describe the real world implication of the issue, rather than use the jargon. That might grate on people who do know the jargon.

For example, I want the consultant to criticise the volume delay curve equation. When I have Dennis talk about the note the consultant sent, he could say something like, "Here he questions how we calculate the delays from traffic congestion." Most people know what delay and traffic congestion mean. They don't need to know how the model estimates the delay.

Issues To Use

I've come up with a few more issues I think I can use.

·         Parking cost - this would affect whether people drive or take the bus.

·         Pedestrians mode constant in the modal choice model - this would affect how many people walk instead for drive.

·         Ride sharing - this would affect car pooling. This might include newer services like Uber or Lyft.

·         Trip distribution exponent - this would affect where people would go to work or shop.

·         Cycling - I plan to use a reference to cycling elsewhere in the revised script, so I wouldn't want to use it here.

I'll need to work on these issues some more before I go ahead with my rewrite. I still might decide to do some more research.

You can watch the previous version of "The Barrier" here: http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/the-barrier/

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

Ancient Alien Visitations: Show Me the Garbage

In an earlier post I asked myself what might convince me that aliens had visited Earth in ancient times. I think I have an answer to that now.

Back in May 2015, I wrote a post about what evidence we'd find if aliens had visited Earth in ancient times.

http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/if-there-really-were-ancient-astronauts-what-kind-of-evidence-would-we-find/ In that post I asked what kind of evidence would convince me that aliens had visited Earth.

Much of the evidence presented to support the ancient alien visitation hypothesis, is also used to support the advanced prehistoric civilization hypothesis. My discussion below would therefore also apply to that hypothesis.

Am I a Denier or a Sceptic?

So far, none of the evidence presented by advocates of the ancient alien visitation hypothesis has convinced me that there was any truth to the hypothesis.  The difference between a denier and a sceptic is that a sceptic can say what kind of evidence would cause them to change their mind. When I wrote the last post, I couldn't think of what might convince me, but I have thought about it several times since then.

Evidence: Show Me the Garbage

Recently I read an article on the Internet that reminded me that archaeologists find the study of  people's garbage dumps very useful in their research. What struck me was that the evidence proposed to support the ancient alien visitation hypotheses is by and large stone constructions. These can be explained in other ways.

If aliens had visited Earth and spent some considerable time here, surely they would have left some kind of garbage. If there had been a large scale presence of aliens in ancient times, we would find garbage that reflected a more advanced level of technology almost everywhere. These large accumulations of garbage would leave little doubt that aliens had visited. This kind of discovery of garbage would convince me of the reality of alien visitations.

For example, in recent times, modern humans have created vast amounts of garbage. You can find plastic garbage just about everywhere. It will take centuries for these plastics to biodegrade, and even then, they would leave evidence that could be detected thousands of years in the future.

I don't think any of the advocates of alien visitation have explicitly looked for garbage. There have been several finds that might be classed as garbage, but none that convince me.

Counter Argument: The Aliens Were Neat Freaks

If we do not find any ancient alien garbage, does that prove they didn't visit? You could argue that the reason we don't find garbage is that they were very advanced and did not create any garbage. Maybe they picked up everything before they left.

I think this is a possible explanation. Certainly many people today want to reduce the amount of garbage we produce. A more advanced society could have successfully reduced the volume of their garbage to the point that it is undetectable.

That isn't my concern here though. I did not set out to convince others that alien's did not visit. I wanted to find an example of the kind of evidence that would convince me that I was wrong about ancient alien visitation. Large volumes of alien garbage found in many parts of the world would be that kind of evidence.

Other related blog posts:

http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/a-brief-thought-about-the-fermi-paradox/

http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/why-would-ancient-astronauts-visit-earth/

http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/do-ancient-alien-probes-watch-earth/

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

"Felix" and the Exploration of Mars - Part 3

A while back I developed my ideas about how Mars would be explored to firm up the back story of my story "Felix". This week I came across some material that suggests that real scientists have thought along the same lines.

In my earlier blog post: http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/felix-and-the-exploration-of-mars/, I suggested that before people would visit Mars, we would send robots ahead to survey and then build a Mars base where people would live on Mars. I did a follow up to that blog post: http://dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/felix-and-the-exploration-of-mars-part-2/

I found this article: http://www.popsci.com/we-could-be-living-on-moon-in-10-years-or-less, that reports on a conference about the possibilities of building a Moon village. The papers from the conference can be found at: http://online.liebertpub.com/toc/space/4/1

Moon and Mars Bases

Their focus is on the creation of a Moon base rather than a Mars base, although one of the participants said that he saw it as a step toward the creation of a Mars base. Although their focus is on the Moon, the approach they proposed was similar to what I had come up with for Mars. That gives me a little more confidence in my ideas.

I hadn't really thought about it as the background to my story, but it makes a lot of sense to me to test out the approach on the Moon before any attempt to do the same on Mars. That aspect wouldn't show up explicitly in "Felix".

Ideas for My Story

This report got me to think about my story again. I think I may have a solution to one of the problems with the story. In the story my Mars rover, Felix, is lost, which is why the astronauts were sent to search. However, the quality of the satellite images is so good now, that it would be very difficult for a rover to get lost.

I came up with two things I could add to the story that would explain how Felix could get lost. My first idea is that there would be a great dust storm, which happen now and then on Mars. That would prevent satellites from tracking the rover, and would also cover up its track way. The second idea is that the big discovery would in a large cave, which would be hidden from the satellite's view.

The more I think about these ideas, the more I think they could give the story some added interest and drama. That is another problem I have with the story: it doesn't seem to have much excitement. I just might get back to my rewrite one of these days.

Image sources:

• https://www.wpclipart.com/space/moon/moon_lithograph.jpg.html
• https://www.wpclipart.com/space/solar_system/Mars/Mars_NASA_photo.jpg.html

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog

"The Barrier", "The Disruptors", and Relationships

This week, besides work on "The Barrier", and "The Disruptors", I also thought about how I should develop the relationship back-stories for characters.

"The Barrier"

My rewrite of "The Barrier" has gone quite slowly, but I managed to finish 5 of the 39 scenes I plan to rewrite. Once do I get started it goes smoothly, but I find it far too easy to put it off.

So far all of the revised scenes run longer. Version 0.6 of the movie runs about 86 minutes. If all of the scenes I rewrite end up longer by the same amount, it looks like the new version could run almost 2 hours. That is longer than what I'd like it to be.

There several existing scenes that seem repetitious to me. Maybe I can shorten the movie if eliminate those. It can get tricky when you try to cut stuff out though. I read somewhere recently that it is much easier to add material to a script than take it out. On the other hand, I've found with some of my earlier movies, that cutting out material would often improve the movie.

"The Disruptors"

I had planned to leave "The Disruptors" until later, but I had a bunch of ideas about the characters that I had to write down before I forgot them. I have a plot in mind, but after I did "The 89th Key" I decided I needed to put more effort into creating the characters before I develop the plot in more detail.

Relationships

Another thing I learned from "The 89th Key" was that it is important to define the relationships between the characters. Relationships develop during the course of a story, but what I have in mind is to develop a back-story for the relationships. I am not sure how I should go about that. I've seen questionnaires writers have set up to help them develop their characters. I haven't seen any to help you develop your characters' relationships.

I came up with a few ideas:

§         Are they friends, enemies or neutral?

§         Are they rivals or team mates?

§         Do they trust each other?

§         Do they like each other?

§         How strong is the relationship?

§         When did they meet?

§         How did they meet?

§         Was it one event that brought them together, or did it develop slowly over a longer period?

§         What do they have in common?

§         What do they normally talk about?

§         What do they disagree about?

§         What aspects of the other are they unaware of?

I'll need to give this list some more thought. It seems to me that there must be many other important questions to ask. Some of questions seem to duplicate others.

This post is a mirror from my main blog http://www.dynamiclethargyfilms.ca/blog